March to Madness!

When it comes to getting into the NCAA Tournament field of 64 65 68 teams as an at-large bid from a big conference, conventional wisdom suggests that you have to get to 20 wins. Georgetown’s win over Providence was its 20th of the season, though only its 19th against D-1 competition, which is what counts for tournament purposes. At least 4 games remain, and perhaps more if the Hoyas advance in the Big East Tournament. Winning any one of those games ought to get the Hoyas into the tournament. But based on the encouraging results to date, many Hoya faithful are expecting bigger and better things than mere entrance to the dance. And prominent bracketologists currently have Georgetown projected as a high seed.

So will the Hoyas get in, and with what seed? Here’s a soon-to-be-wrong projection of the remaining games, the Hoyas’ likelihood of winning and what it will take to get various seeds come tournament time.

Tier 1: Heavy Favorites. There are two remaining games, both at the Phone Booth, that stats guru Ken Pomeroy gives the Hoyas a 75 percent or better chance of winning: Villanova and Notre Dame. Neither of these games is a shoo-in: Notre Dame has rattled off eight straight, including wins over Syracuse and Marquette, while Villanova is underperforming but immensely talented. Still, the Hoya faithful should expect wins in both contests. Prediction: 2-0.

Tier 2: Underdogs. Finally, the Hoyas will be underdogs for their trip to Marquette. The Golden Eagles bounced back after losses to Georgetown and Syracuse, vying for second place in the league. They’ll be thirsty for revenge for an early season collapse against the Hoyas, and will be extra motivated by senior day. Prediction: 0-1.

Seeds. So what seed could the Hoyas get in the dance? Well, it depends on how they finish. Major conference teams over the past three years have averaged the following regular winning percentages per seed: 6 seeds win an average of 70.8 percent of their regular season games; 5 seeds, 72.2 percent; 4 seeds, 76.6; 3 seeds, 76.7; and 2 seeds, 80.4.

A five-game losing streak will make it difficult for Georgetown to get into the tournament. If the Hoyas finish 1-2, they’d finish at 20-8. Depending on the Hoyas’ performance in the conference tournament, that record should earn them at least a 7 seed, possibly a 6.

A 2-1 finish, as projected above, would leave the Hoyas 12-6 in conference, 21-7 overall, on the edge of a top-4 Big East seed and double-bye that comes with it. Depending on which teams Georgetown beats, and how it does in the Big East Tournament, the Hoyas might grab a 5 or a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

A sweep of the last three games would leave the Hoyas 13-5 in conference, 22-6 overall, and in serious consideration for a 3 seed.

S0, the prospects for an entry to the tourney look good. Once the Hoyas get to March, well….

We’ll update this page as Georgetown rolls along.