March to Madness!

When it comes to getting into the NCAA Tournament field of 64 65 68 teams as an at-large bid from a big conference, conventional wisdom suggests that you have to get to 20 wins. Georgetown’s win over Pittsburgh was its 22nd against D-1 competition, which is what counts for tournament purposes, meaning the Hoyas are playing for seeding at this point. Based on the encouraging results to date, many Hoya faithful are expecting bigger and better things than mere entry to the dance. And prominent bracketologists currently have Georgetown projected as a high seed. At least 1 game remains, and perhaps more if the Hoyas continue to advance in the Big East Tournament, giving the blue and gray more opportunities at resume-building.

Games. The Hoyas will face Cincinnati on Thursday. A win would mean a Friday semifinal game, most likely against Syracuse. A win there would be a ticket to Saturday’s final.

Seeds. So what seed could the Hoyas get in the dance? Well, it depends on how they finish. Major conference teams over the past three years have averaged the following regular winning percentages per seed: 6 seeds win an average of 70.8 percent of their regular season games; 5 seeds, 72.2 percent; 4 seeds, 76.6; 3 seeds, 76.7; and 2 seeds, 80.4.

If the Hoyas finish 0-1, they’d finish at 22-8. That should earn the Hoyas a 4 seed. Beating Cincinnati would almost assure the Hoyas a 4 seed, while putting them in great position for a 3 seed. Farther than that would solidify the Hoyas’ 3 seed, while winning the conference tournament might–might–give them a chance at a 2.

So, the prospects for an entry to the tourney look good. Once the Hoyas get to March, well….