At this point, the Orange are a known, feared, and hated entity.  If you take out the Hoyas’ 14-0 run to start the first game and their 25-7 run in the second game, the Orange have outscored the Hoyas by about eleventy billion in two games this year.  Of course, if my dog purred it’d be a cat;  maybe inspired D followed by several-minute brain farts are just Syracuse’s m.o.

So what has plagued the Hoyas against the Orange?

• Finding open shots. Back cuts and dribble-drive distraction don’t do much against the Orange’s 2-3 zone; ball movement and moving to seams does.   Easier said than done, especially since the Orange’s collective wing-span, unofficially the longest since the 2003 Carmelo-Warrick championship run, makes finding clean looks even harder.  Georgetown’s inability to find open shots is reflected in their two-game field-goal percentages:  42.9% and 38.5%, a steep decline from their 49.8% season average.   Solution. The Hoyas have found some success working the ball into Greg Monroe (surprise, surprise) and others who flash to the free-throw line then distribute to open wings or other gaps in the zone.  Also, while the Hoyas aren’t a running team and the Orange get back on defense, every fast-break basket helps.
• Scoring by the supporting cast. Julian Vaughn, Henry Sims, Hollis Thompson, Jerrelle Benimon and Vee Sanford have averaged 2.5 points per game total in the two Syracuse contests.  They collectively average closer to double digits in Big East play normally.  Had they chipped in at that rate against the Orange, the Hoyas might have split the two games. Solution.  Thompson is the most likely candidate from this bunch to step up.  Vaughn has been had some trouble maneuvering within the Orange zone, while any scoring from Benimon, Sanford, and Sims will be a happy surprise.
• Free throws. The Orange have shot 10+ more free-throws per game more than the Hoyas, and the Hoyas have been strangely below par from the line.  Solution. The missed free throws are probably just a statistical aberration.  Andy Rautins in particular has earned his keep from the stripe, averaging over 10 free throws attempted per contest, and the Orange wings in general have gotten to the line way too often. Perhaps flashing the occasional zone will cut down on the Hoyas’ hacking.

Now, a few things they’ve done well:

• Rebounding. The Orange are a big team, but they play zone, which generally provides better opportunities for offensive rebounds.  The Hoyas, not a great rebounding team by any stretch, are +7 on the offensive glass over two games (and -6 overall, primarily due to a lot more misses by the Hoyas than the Orange).
  
• Forcing turnovers. Georgetown does not generally force a lot of turnovers, but they’ve forced Syracuse into an average of 16.5 per in the two games thus far.  The Hoyas will need as many extra possessions as they can get tomorrow.

Georgetown has largely recovered from a late-season slide, winning its last two in impressive fashion and cementing a place in the NCAA tournament.  Whichplace, though, is yet to be determined.  Recent projections have the Hoyas as a 5 seed, but that probably could still go either way, depending on Thursday’s result (as well as the results of about 20 other games, and whether the butterfly half way around the world flaps its wings).  More than seeding, though, Thursday’s game is about pride.

Prediction–Georgetown 70, Syracuse 67.

A few keys to the game:

• Defense.  The Hoyas held the Bulls to just 19 points in the first half, and under 30% from the field for the game.  Dominique Jones looked less like Dwyane Wade and more like Jerry Stackhouse–6 of 18 from the field, 6 turnovers, 5 missed free throws.
• Chris Wright. With the Hoya bigs saddled with foul trouble and Austin Freeman (3 of 12) missing his shot, Wright led the Hoyas charge, scoring 15, 12 in the first half, grabbing 6 rebounds, and dropping 4 assists.
  
• Jason Clark. Those rainbow 3s were dropping in MSG — 4 of 6 from deep, 6 rebounds, and a couple of sweet plays inside the arc to boot.
• Rebounding. At the half, the Hoyas were up 12 points, but losing the battle of the boards.  After intermission, Georgetown was able to build on its lead largely because they hit the boards that much harder.
• Fouls. South Florida shot 25 free throws, Georgetown 9.  Julian Vaughn fouled out in just 16 minutes of action, Monroe had 4 fouls most of the second half, while Hollis Thompson and Wright both picked up 4.  Of course, the Bulls get to the line often, and the Hoyas don’t draw many fouls, but some of the calls in this game were just silly.  Without free throws, this would have been over at the half.
• Two-leafed clover.  Back-to-back Ryan Dougherty and Stephen Stepka sightings!
  

The Hoyas return to action tomorrow against Syracuse at 12 pm EST in search of back-to-back revenge wins.  A preview follows later this evening.

The First Time Around

Way back on February 3, the Hoyas lost at home to South Florida, 72-64, a classic let-down game between big wins over Duke and Villanova.  In that game, the Hoyas led early but gave up a galling 46 second-half points while scoring just 29 over their own.  In particular, All Big-East selection Dominique Jones torched Georgetown, scoring 29, 22 of which came in the pivotal second half.

So what worked, and what didn’t?

What worked:

• Austin Freeman.  7 of 11 from the field, 21 points.
  
• Greg Monroe.  9 of 14 from the field, 21 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks.
• …that’s pretty much it.
  

What didn’t:

• The rest of the Hoya line-up. No one else shot 50% or better from the field.  Chris Wright was a particular offender (3 of 10 from the field, 0 of 6 from 3, 2 of 4 from the line).  Each of the starter contributed in his own way (Wright had 5 assists, Jason Clark and Julian Vaughn had 6 rebounds apiece), but none of those ways included much scoring.
• Free-throw shooting.  The Hoyas went 11 for 22 from the line; had they shot just 70%, the four-point deficit that the Hoyas faced before some late fouling would have been a tie.
• Containing Jones. The Hoyas have struggled throughout the year to lock down wing scorers, most recently Lance Stephenson from Cincinnati.   The South Florida game was no exception, as described above.
• Foul Trouble. Clark and Vaughn both finished with 4 fouls, and Monroe fouled out with the Hoyas down just 2 in the waning minutes.  Aside from hampering the Hoyas’ belated comeback, all those fouls put the Bulls on the line 31 times.
  

Wednesday’s Game

South Florida enters the game 20-11, and 10-9 (counting the recent DePaul win) in conference.  While the Hoyas are playing for seeding in the NCAA tournament,  the Bulls are playing just to get in.  To help their cause, they’ll have second-leading scorer Augustus Gilchrist, who missed the earlier match-up between the two teams because of injury.

The Hoyas are still in search of some momentum.  The romp over Cincinnati was nice, but one win hardly erases the sour taste of four losses in their prior five.  Wednesday, they’ll have a tough test against a talented and motivated opponent.  They’ll also have an opportunity for revenge. As talented as the Bulls are, the Hoyas are the better team, but it’s up to them to prove it.  And, an even bigger revenge game, against Syracuse on Thursday, looms as a distraction.

Keep an eye on the following three things as bellwethers for the Hoyas’ success:

• Points in the Paint.  The Bulls don’t take or make many 3s (Tuesday against DePaul, they made zero), and so make their living (1) on drives to the hoop and (2) on free throws (see more on (2) below).   Limiting points in the paint is usually a team effort; while Monroe and Vaughn must play stout defense inside, Freeman, Wright, and Clark must keep the South Florida guards from penetrating into the lane.  South Florida, and Jones in particular, relies on dribble drives to create easy points.  Speaking of easy points…
• Free Throws. The Bulls get to the line with startling frequency (33rd nationally), and earned the difference in the last game at the charity stripe (19 made free throws to Georgetown’s 11).  Georgetown has had a tendency to brick one free throw after another in losses (e.g. USF, 2nd Syracuse game).
• Rebounding. In the first game, the Hoyas and Bulls rebounded at a similar rate, drawing even on offensive boards and with the Bulls edging the Hoyas by 3 overall.  Since then, Gilchrist, who averages over six rebounds a game, has come back.  Extra possessions lead to extra points, and the Hoyas can ill afford to give those up tomorrow.
• Supporting Scoring. Freeman when healthy and Monroe have been consistent performers throughout, but especially in the latter half of the season.  Monroe has scored 12 or better in 8 straight, while Freeman has netted 11 or better every game since Butler in December (save for the ND game, in which he was so obviously ill).  But the Hoyas have struggled to get a third consistent scorer–Chris Wright has been famously up-and-down, and Jason Clark has been seemingly absent from several games in conference play.
• Jones.  The elephant in the room.  Whether by showing more zone or more Hollis Thompson, the Hoyas must find a way to contain Jones, who accounts for nearly a third of the Bulls’ offense.

Prediction–Georgetown 70, South Florida 66.

Another day of rest for the Hoyas today, but they’ll have one eye on the TV as South Florida plays DePaul at noon EST, with the winner facing the Hoyas tomorrow at noon. The Bulls beat the Blue Demons in Chicago in their only match-up this year, and ESPN’s fancy simulator gives USF roughly a 2-to-1 odds of winning today’s game, while basketball prospectus’s odds are closer to 4-to-1.  The other games today (St. John’s-Connecticut, Providence-Seton Hall, Rutgers-Cincinnati) figure to compare favorably to paint drying, but not much else.  Best to get mentally prepared for a revenge game tomorrow against the Bulls.  Update: South Florida is winning 30-15 at the half.  15 points in a half?  Nice work Demons.

Tourney odds

The guys at basketball prospectus have put some odds on the various Big Easters’ chances of winning each round.  Based on all sorts of mathiness, the Hoyas, have an 80.9 percent chance of beating today’s winner.  Then, the odds drop precipitously–they only have a 27.9% chance of also beating Syracuse (meaning roughly 2-to-1 odds, given the chance that they’ll lose tomorrow), a 14.1% chance of making the final (making them a slight favorite in the hypothetical semifinal game against Villanova or a team to be named later), and a 6.8% chance of winning the those thing.

Seeding

Joe Lunardi’s seeding continues to confound.  The Hoyas were a 5 seed, no. 20 on the S curve, then trounced Cincinnati, making them a 6 seed, no. 23 on the curve, then did nothing, and rose to a 5 seed, no. 21.  Apparently this counterintuitive movement has something to do with other teams’ successes and failures.  One such team is Gonzaga, which got blown out last night and then fell to a 7 seed, and the other is beyond me.  Anyway, a useful reminder (just like Syracuse’s and Marquette’s losses last weekend were) that the best the Hoyas can do is win their own game(s).

• Big East Tournament bracket here.  Or, if you disdain brckets, here.  So, the Hoyas will probably need to have a four-game South Florida-Syracuse-Villanova-West Virginia winning streak — teams against which they’re 1-5 — to win the conference crown.  Put differently, four straight payback games!  (Except for Nova, I guess.)  It all starts  with Georgetown v. the winner of South Florida/DePaul, Wednesday at noon EST on ESPN.
  
• All-Big East Teams are here.  Greg Monroe was named to the first team, and Austin Freeman to the second.  Well done, sirs. After getting deservedly shut out of the All-Big East team after last year’s stinkbomb, the Hoyas return to 2008 and -07 form, when the Hoyas also netted one player on each of the first two teams. Tough to see Freeman omitted from the first team, but also tough to quibble with the other five that made it in front of him (Luke Harangody, Dominique Jones, Wesley Johnson, Scottie Reynolds, and Da’Sean Butler).  Maybe this will lead to an angry Freeman dominating Jones, Johnson, Reynolds, and Butler in succession this week?
• Seed watch–Joe Lunardi has the Hoyas currently as a 5 6 seed in the dance, a precipitous fall from earlier projections.  It also looks as though they’ll need a win Wednesday to stay a 5 6 seed; Lunardi has them as number 20 23 on the S-curve, meaning that they’re the second-to-last 5 6 seed on the board, one mis-step away from a possible 7 seed.  And, they’ll probably need wins Wednesday and Thursday (the latter over Syracuse) to move back into the 5 or 4 range. Of course, Lunardi is not the committee, so we won’t know anything definitive until Sunday.
• Rankings watch–Hoyas #22 in both polls, sliding down a couple of spots.
  

Here are the Tuesday through Saturday games, with seeding before each team (check out note below for my understanding of the #2-4 tie-break):

Tuesday:

• Game 1: #16 DePaul v. #9 South Florida, 12 pm, ESPN2
• Game 2: #13 St. John’s v. # 12 Connecticut, 2 pm, ESPN2
• Game 3: #15 Providence v. #10 Seton Hall, 7 pm, ESPNU
  
• Game 4: #14 Rutgers v. #11 Cincinnati, 7 PM, ESPNU
  

Wednesday

• Game 5: Game 1 winner v. #8 Georgetown, 12 pm, ESPN
• Game 6: Game 2 winner v. #5 Marquette, 2 pm, ESPN
  
• Game 7: Game 3 winner v. #7 Notre Dame, 7 pm, ESPN
• Game 8: Game 4 winner v. #6 Louisville, 9 pm, ESPN

Thursday

• Game 9: Game 5 winner v. #1 Syracuse, 12 pm, ESPN
• Game 10: Game 6 winner v. #4 Villanova, 2pm, ESPN
• Game 11: Game 7 winner v. #2 Pittsburgh, 7 pm, ESPN
• Game 12: Game 8 winner v. #3 West Virginia, 9 pm, ESPN

Friday

• Game 13: Game 9 winner v.  Game 10 winner, 7 pm, ESPN
• Game 14: Game 11 winner v. Game 12 winner, 9 pm ESPN

Saturday

• Game 15: Game 13 winner v. Game 14 winner, 9 pm, ESPN

A note on tie-breakers.  Pittsburgh, Villanova, and West Virginia tied in conference record.  To break that tie, the Big East’s rules consider the three teams a “mini-conference” and rank the teams according to their record in that mini-conference.  Pittsburgh beat Villanova in their lone match-up; Villanova split its games against West Virginia; and West Virginia and Pittsburgh likewise split their contests.  That makes Pittsburgh 2-1, West Virginia 2-2, and Villanova 1-2 in the mini-conference, and the tie is broken in that order.

The Hoyas finish 10-8 after and up-and-down Big East season.  They’ll finish somewhere between sixth and eighth in the standings, depending on the outcomes of the Syracuse-Louisville and Notre Dame-Marquette games later today.  Hold your noses and root for Syracuse and Marquette, or at least against the other two.  In any case, their next game will be on Wednesday in the Big East tournament.

So far, the big news of the day is Austin Freeman starting, looking healthy, and playing the first six minutes, scoring 5 and making 2 of 3 from the field.  Freshman Lance Stephenson is looking strong for the Bearcats, scoring 8 of his team’s first 9 points, and grabbing 2 offensive rebounds.  The ESPN360 broadcasting crew sounds like they just graduated from the AHL–brutal.

11:35 — Freeman checked back in–keep an eye on his minutes the rest of the game.  Monroe, beautiful move in the post, but still can’t finish with the right.  Stay in school!

11:04–After an awful possession that vaguely resembled rugby, a Georgetown turnover.

9:40–Hollis Thompson launches an ill-advised long 2; the Hoyas are settling for far too many deep jumpers. Cincinnati 15, Georgetown 12.

8:10–Freeman drains another deep 3!  The crowd is clearly (and deservedly) pulling specifically for him, 17-15 Hoyas.  Truly inspiring.

7:40–Off of a Bearcat turnover, Freeman bulls down the lane, switching hands in mid-air, finishing a tough shot in the lane, and giving the Bearcat defender a bloody nose, 19-15 Hoyas.  John Celestand, the color guy and apparently a doctor, has determined that it’s not a broken nose.  Thanks, John.

7:20–Bad Cincinnati possession leading to a Monroe board–he already has six.  The Hoyas are showing a bit more fight on the boards today.

5:30–Stephenson scores off of an offensive board after roughly 217 pump fakes.  He’s a beast, and another long, athletic wing (Dominique Jones, Jonathan Mitchell) that the Hoyas can’t stop.

3:59–After a Chris Wright bucket, the Hoyas are up 21-19 at the TV timeout.  John Castleberry, John Celestand’s partner, calls this game a “shootout.”  I suppose if you’ve been calling minor league hockey, John, yes, yes it is.

3:40–Chris Wright makes a nice little stop-and-pop, but then gets too excited and launches a dumb 18-footer.  What Chris giveth, he taketh away.

2:00-1:00–After Monroe makes a silky step-back jumper, he makes a nice post-move that might have involved a triple dribble, giving the Hoyas a six-point lead, 27-21.

Half–29-26.  The Hoyas play lazy defense on the last two possessions, giving up a couple of open shots.  Not a terrible half for the Hoyas, but they can’t seem to shake the Bobcats, whose long, athletic defense is forcing Georgetown into some bad shots (just 40% on the half).  The good news is that the Hoyas are winning the boards, 21-14.  John Celestand (went to Villanova–figures) just complimented Freeman’s “big, strong body.”

2nd Half

19:30–After a long, meandering possession, Clark gets open off of a flash screen and hits a deep 3, 32-26.

19:15–Stephenson hits a pull-up, 32-28.  The kid is a man.

18:21–after two Freeman FTs, Yancy Gates just out-mans Julian Vaughn in the post, 34-30.  The teams follow up with three straight turnovers — beautiful.

17:53–Monroe dominates Ibrahima Thomas, who picks up two quick fouls, his third and fourth.  The Bearcats bring in a freshman, and Monroe drools.  Hoyas, 37-30.

17:05–after a pair of Cincy free-throws, Freeman is left all alone and hits a three, 40-32.  Wright steals the ball back, but then stupidly misses a lay-in on a 3-on-1, leaving his two trailers wide open.  Nice.

15:08–Vee Sanford gets a nice run-out and dishes to Wright, who makes a tough and-one, 44-35. Vee is looking better each game–he can shoot, dish, and handle the rock.  On the freshman scale of 1 to 10, Hollis is a 6, Vee is a 5 but rising fast, and Jerrelle Benimon is a ??.

14:18–Monroe gets the ball at the top of the key spins left, then right, and finishes with his right (!!), 46-35.  Just a beautiful move, Monroe has 12 and 11, and the biggest Hoya lead of the day.

11:45–After a couple of ugly minutes, Freeman finishes a nice drive, 48-35, then gets a steal, draws the foul, then hits both foul shots, 50-35.  19 for Free — just inspiring.

9:31–Monroe hits back-to-back sweet lay-ins, just abusing the Cincy defense, and after an and-one, 55-37.

8:08–Wright and Freeman trade lay-ups, Freeman on a tough left-hander, 59-39.  The Hoyas have outscored the Bearcats 25-9 over the past 10 minutes.  The Bearcats can’t get anything inside, and the Hoyas are having their way on offense.

5:40–A sweet block by Hollis!–his second in as many minutes–who then leads the break and dishes to Clark, 66-41.  Blowout.

4:09–Monroe gets a fast-break dunk, then Hollis makes two FTs, 70-41.  Hoyas up 41-15 in the second half alone.

1:12–Hoyas up 74-46, Ryan Dougherty sighting!

40.6–Stephen Stepka sighting!

21.9–Benimon rounds out your 2010 Yates all-stars–Dougherty, Stepka, Sims, Benimon, and Vee.

74-47, Final.  A great performance in the second half–dominance by Monroe (19 pts., 15 rebs.) inspiration by Freeman (24 pts.), nice supporting work by Wright (16 pts., 4 assts) and Clark (11 pts., 5 rebs.).

Normally, this would be Senior Day, but the Hoyas have no seniors this year.  Speculation about Greg Monroe’s NBA future is rampant, and this may be a de facto senior day for him, although Hoya fans everywhere will be rooting for at least one more year on campus for him.  Austin Freeman has had a harrowing week, but appears to be feeling somewhat better, and should be warmly received whether he’s in street clothes or in uniform.  On the Austin front, read  Liz Clarke’s update. which should make you feel warm and fuzzy about Freeman, JTIII, Julian Vaughn (Freeman’s roomie), and Michael Wilbon’s piece about athletes with diabetes.  Finally, read Andy Katz’s update, which, in addition to catching much of Clarke’s material, reports that the entire Hoya squad has battled the flu (but now, apparently, is over it).

Uncertainty about Freeman’s present and Monroe’s future, along with the Hoyas’ late-season slide, bring unusual gravity to a day normally about celebration.  Still, the game will be played, and so a quick preview is in order.

Cincinnati is a team still struggling to get back to tournament-caliber after the halcyon days of Bob Huggins.  This year’s Bearcats are talented and improving, if still inconsistent.  Recently, they’ve taken Villanova and West Virginia to the wire before losing both games, and so would provide a battle even for a full-strength edition of the Hoyas.

• Star-Deonta Vaughn.  The (18th-year?) senior guard runs the show for the Bearcats, leading the team in points and assists, and generally dominating the ball.
• X factor–Lance Stephenson.  The talented but troubled freshman wing shares the team scoring lead with Vaughn, and hits the boards (5.2 pg), but still has issues with consistency.
• Supporting cast–sophomore forward Yancy Gates scores 10+ ppg, leads the team in rebounds per game (6.0 per), and will be Cincinnati’s best bet at controlling Monroe down low.
• Strength–two-pointers and rebounds.  The Bearcats shoot and defend well from inside the arc, and really assault the boards on both ends.   But…
• Weakness–other shooting, and turnovers.  Cincinnati doesn’t get to the line much, doesn’t shoot well when it gets there, and doesn’t shoot from outside very well.  And, while the Bobcats gain extra possessions on rebounds, they don’t force many turnovers.

The Hoyas have had a number of momentous games against high-profile opponents this year, but Saturday’s game will be meaningful for other reasons.  Georgetown will be trying to right the ship before the Big East Tournament while proceeding through the strange haze that Freeman’s illness has left over the Hoya faithful, if not the team itself.  Now is the time for the Hoya fans to rally around their team, as the Hoyas themselves will undoubtedly rally around each other.

Prediction-Georgetown 70, Cincinnati 65, on faith alone.

Austin Freeman’s “mysterious illness” turns out to be diabetes, but it should not affect his long-term basketball career. Click here to read the full Washington Post story. It’s unclear when he’ll return to action, but I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw him in uniform this Saturday against Cincinnati. Georgetown fans know how important “Austin Powers” is to our success. We wish him the speediest of recoveries.

And, out of pure adulation and optimistic projection of days to come, here’s a highlight reel.