Georgetown led for nearly the entire first half, dominating the boards while staying just ahead of the Orange. Freshman Otto Porter, who would finish with 14 points and 13 rebounds, led the charge to the glass, grabbing nine first-half misses. The Hoyas were no great shakes from the field, shooting below 40 percent for the half, but managed a couple of timely threes from Hollis Thompson and just enough ball movement to score on the Orange zone. On the other end of the floor, the Hoyas’ zone bottled up the Orange, save for a couple of Joseph threes, helping the visitors to carry a 31-27 lead into half-time.

Syracuse came out of the break with eight straight points to wrest the lead from the Hoyas. A sloppy turnover and missed shot both led to easy transition points, which Georgetown had limited up to that point. Syracuse’s run culminated with a Brandon Triche three that brought the 27,000 plus Orange-clad fans to their feet. Seniors Jason Clark and Henry Sims each had picked up their third fouls, making the Hoyas’ prospects grim.

Faced with veteran foul trouble, JTIII turned to a line-up of Hollis and the four freshmen. As they had so many times before, the first years came through on the defensive end, stanching the blood-letting while scoring just enough to tighten the margin back up. The game was nip-and-tuck the rest of the way, with each team taking one-basket leads that were just as quickly equalized. But Georgetown struggled to keep up, as Sims and Mikael Hopkins, the Hoyas’ big men, missed a series of chip shots near the rim, finishing 2 of 20 between them from the floor. While some of the shots looked make-able, many of the misses could be chalked up to Syracuse’s stout interior defense which, led by massive center Fab Melo, boasts the best block rate in the Big East. Having contained the Hoyas on offense, Syracuse rebuilt its advantage, which swelled to six thanks to yet another three by Joseph with 4:37 remaining

Just when Georgetown looked to be fading into the night, though, Clark hit back-to-back threes from ten or more feet beyond the arc. Reinvigorated on offense, the Hoyas locked down on defense, holding the Orange to just a single free throw over the last four minutes. In part, the Hoyas were aided by Orange guard Dion Waiters’s decision to play hero ball, as the sophomore launched jumper after ill-advised jumper. But Georgetown’s stingy defense also ruled out other options, clogging the lane and swarming the perimeter. Clark’s second bomb pulled the Hoyas within one, and an ill-advised foul with a minute remaining sent Greg Whittington to the line with just one minute remaining. The freshman made one of two to tie the game; each team missed opportunities to win in the final minute, including a frustrating possession in which Sims looked off a wide open Thompson on the perimeter.

A see-saw extra session ensued, with each team gaining, then relinquishing, a two-point lead. With less than a minute to play, Syracuse had the ball with a chance to break a 61-all tie. Once again, the Orange found Joseph free on the wing, and once again, the senior converted from three, his sixth trey of the evening with barely 20 seconds remaining in the extra session. A Georgetown timeout and a frustrating sequence ensued, in which Thompson tried to check into the game, but too late, leaving the Hoyas without their best perimeter marksman on a critical possession. Left without an additional option, Clark was bottled up and turned the ball over, ending the Hoyas’ chances.

The final minute was a disheartening end to an extremely encouraging evening that validated the Hoyas’ progress throughout the season. Whatever the struggles on each end of the floor, the Hoyas proved that they could shut down the Orange offense, which until last night had averaged more than 78 points per game. Porter once again proved his merit on a big stage, notching a double-double, while the rest of the Hoya freshmen seemed unfazed by the rabid opposing crowd. Clark and Thompson each played moderately well against the swarming Orange zone, with Hollis in particular showing full-court effort en route to his own 10 point, 10 rebound double-double.

Georgetown takes these positives into a five-game stretch in which the Hoyas are likely to be favored in each contest: Sunday’s home game against St. John’s; road trips to Providence and Seton Hall; and a pair of home games, against Villanova and Notre Dame. Each game will present its own challenges, but if the Hoyas bring the same defensive tenacity and composure against those foes that brought them within a free throw of being the first team to win at the Carrier Dome, they should emerge victorious. For now, the sting of Wedneday’s loss lingers, but another game awaits. Hoya Saxa.

For the second straight game, Georgetown held its opponent without a field goal for ten-plus minutes, keeping South Florida scoreless from five minutes after the tip until barely four minutes remained in the first half. The Hoyas were aided in their defensive efforts by the Bulls themselves, who committed numerous and egregious turnovers (at one point, five straight USF possessions ended in turnovers), missed free throws and lay-ups, and generally shot themselves in the foot offensively. But Georgetown’s defense also limited perimeter looks, rotated crisply, and held its own on the boards.

Initially, the offense wasn’t much to speak of, shooting just 35 percent for the first half and managing just three free throws over a nine-plus minute stretch. But that all changed after the half, when the Hoyas rattled off a 16-4 run to open the half, then scored on 14 straight possessions to end any thought of a South Florida comeback. Some of the new-found offensive production was the result of better ball movement, as Sims, Otto Porter (12 points, 4 assists), and Jason Clark (11 points, 2 assists) all picked up nifty assists. But the onslaught also was fueled simply by hot shooting, as seemingly ill-chosen long two-pointers and one-on-one forays alike led to baskets. Regardless, the jump in production, after recent bouts of offensive ineptitude, as plenty welcome.

In all, the win, its sixth holding a major-conference opponent under 60 points after four such victories last year, was further proof that Georgetown can win games with its defense. For all of Sims’s passing virtuosity, the absence of a true play-maker will continue to cause offensive lapses, but many fans exasperated by frequent defensive indifference in years past are willing to be patient with offensive difficulties. Saturday’s victory also runs Georgetown’s conference mark to 8-3 which, combined with Notre Dame’s win over Marquette, puts those three teams in a three-way tie (in the loss-column) for second place. The Hoyas’ position will be challenged Wednesday, when Georgetown travels to Syracuse to face the streaking Orange. The Hoyas will enter that game as underdogs, but, as they proved last year in the Carrier Dome, anything can happen. A preview of that game follows Saturday at casualhoya.com.

This game started much like the last one ended, with the Hoyas following up Saturday’s lax defensive effort against Pitt with similarly poor play early against UConn, which made six of its first seven shots. Husky uber-freshman Andre Drummond domainted the post early, making four of those six early buckets. But then the Huskies went away from Drummond, who did just okay when he did get the rock. Instead, UConn mostly kept the ball outside, lazily passing around the perimeter of changing Georgetown defenses. Zone and switching man both invited long-range hoists by the Husky guards, who dutifully complied with brick after brick. The Connecticut back-court of Jeremy Lamb, Ryan Boatright, and Shabazz Napier, who average a combined 42 points, shot just 4 of 31 from the field, netting just 15 points between them. While 14 of those points were Lamb’s, he was perhaps the principal offender, repeatedly throwing up errant heat checks from well beyond the three-point arc.

By the time Connecticut’s drought ended–not in a monsoon, but in a bare trickle–the Hoyas had taken the lead. Thompson scored eight straight Hoya points, then Henry Sims put in six straight in versatile fashion, with in a pair of foul shots, a mid-range jumper, and a driving lay-in. A nifty Nate Lubick feed to Thompson for a lay-up ended the half’s scoring with Georgetown up ten. The game was never really in doubt again: the Huskies closed the gap to six just once, whereupon Jason Clark scored consecutive buckets and Sims made the play of the night with a rim-rattling dunk to push the lead back to 12. Thompson finished with 18, a nice bounce-back after a two-game slide, while Sims and Clark scored 13 and 11, respectively.

Much like the old contrast between campaigning and governing, some wins are poetry, and others are in prose. This one was definitely the latter. While Georgetown’s defense deserves some of the credit for Connecticut’s 30 percent shooting, more blame should be given to the Huskies, who alternately looked cold and and toxic Wednesday night. Boatright and Napier, locked in a zero-sum game for minutes, both were forcing the issue on offense, while all three guards seemed incapable of acknowledging that Drummond was their only viable option. And coach Jim Calhoun, apparent endower of whatever academic scholarship Drummond is receiving, employed roughly zero tactical changes throughout the game. On the Hoya side of the ball, improved defense scarcely affected an offense that continued middling results (decent, 44 percent shooting but 15 turnovers) after poor performances against Pitt and Rutgers.

But every win is important in Big East play, including Wednesday’s, which kept the Hoyas in the top four in the conference as the schedule moves into its back nine. With another one in the bag for the Hoyas, Saturday’s showdown with South Florida, of the surprising 6-3 conference mark, looms suddenly large.

Make no mistake: this was not the same Pitt team that lost its first seven Big East games. Panther point guard Tray Woodall returned before Wednesday’s win over Providence, revitalizing a downtrodden team. Saturday, Woodall generated a number of easy opportunities for his teammates, finishing with 10 assists. Several of those helpers came as fellow Panthers slipped screens and otherwise exploited a Georgetown defense that switches on picks. Particular beneficiaries were Nasir Robinson and Lamar Patterson, who combined to shoot 15 of 17 from the field to finish with 39 points.

Still, Georgetown was as bad as Pitt was good. The missed defensive rotations that led to so many easy Panther baskets were largely because of slow feet and poor communication by the Hoya defense. And the offense was little better: tentative cuts and poor ball movement helped hold the Hoyas to just 11 points in the first 15-plus minutes. Even the baskets the Hoyas could manage were outside the flow of the offense, and free throws again were an issue, as Georgetown finished just 7 of 12 from the line. Before Georgetown could right the ship, the deficit was a nigh-insurmountable 28-11.

Then, the Hoyas started clicking. Improved defense held the Panthers to just 5 points over as many minutes, while three-pointers from Otto Porter and Greg Whittington fueled an offensive spurt narrowed the Pitt advantage to 11 at the half. (Had the old bugaboo–foul shots–not bitten Georgetown again in the last minute, when Porter missed the front end of a one-and-one, the lead might have been single digits.)

Georgetown came out of the break on the same trajectory as it closed the first half. Henry Sims–sluggish, silent, and ineffective in the first half–took over the post, scoring all 10 of his points after intermission and finding open teammates for suddenly easy baskets. And Jason Clark, who had scored just two points in the first half, scored twice off the bounce to pull the Hoyas within just five, a number that they matched on a Sims jump hook on the next possession.

But the errors were too many the rest of the way. For every stout defensive possession that resulted in a forced shot or 35-second violation, there was a slow-footed rotation that left Patterson or Robinson open under the hoop. On offense, a couple of forced jumpers frittered away possessions the Hoyas could scarcely afford to waste. Although Porter was excellent, leading the team with 14 points and 6 rebounds, the other offensive options, and the defensive stops, were too few. Georgetown would never again get closer than six.

The Hoyas’ offensive droughts have become something of a theme over recent weeks, whether in the closing minutes against Cincinnati, the entire first half against Rutgers, or the opening fifteen or so minutes against Pitt Saturday. Georgetown is even more susceptible to bouts of offensive ineptitude when one or more of its upperclassmen struggle. Saturday, the veteran in question was Hollis Thompson who, despite scoring 11 points, struggled for the second straight game, going scoreless between the Hoyas’ opening bucket and a largely meaningless eight-point flourish in the final minute.

While Georgetown (barely) withstood long scoreless stretches against Rutgers thanks to rugged defense of its own, the Hoyas could not contain a Pitt offense that, whatever the struggles of the team as a whole, remains highly efficient, and shot 52 percent from the field Saturday. Wednesday, the Hoyas will have a similarly small margin for error when they host the defending national champion UConn Huskies.

When & Where. Saturday, Jan. 28, 4 p.m. EST, Petersen Events Center.

TV/Internet/Radio. ESPN/ESPN3/SportsTalk570.

It’s Been So Long Since Last We Met. Pitt has been the model of excellence over the past decade. Since 2003, the Panthers have averaged27 wins per season, have lost 10 games just once, and have compiled an astounding 101-41 record in the Big East, never failing to win more than 2/3 of their games overall or more than 1/2 of their Big East contests. That astoundingly consistent record made this year’s early-season collapse all the more surprising. Sure, Pitt lost a trio of seniors from last year’s team, including top playmaker Brad Wannamaker, rim defender Gary McGhee, and glue guy Gilbert Brown. But they returned a bevy of talent and had even more coming in. An early season home loss to Long Beach State was disconcerting, but the Panthers still stood at 11-1 heading into their Dec. 23 Christmas tune-up against Danny Hurley’s Wagner squad. But then the Seahawks improbably pulled off the upset. Big East play, and more losses, followed. The defense–for so long the Panthers’ calling card, emblematic as it was of coach Jamie Dixon’s unrivaled intensity–was suddenly porous, compounded by a key injury (more on that below) and the transfer, after barely one semester, of freshman phenom Khem Birch. The nadir came with a 23-point home beat-down by Rutgers, or maybe it was an earlier loss at DePaul. That defeat concluded with the Demon faithful rushing the floor, a show of exuberance that was all the more painful because it bore no relation to the Panthers’ record this season. By the time this Wednesday rolled around, Pitt had lost eight straight, including four at the once-inhospitable Petersen Events Center. Finally, this week, the bleeding stopped, or at least paused, when the Panthers finally got off the schneid by dispatching Providence at home. In other words, Pitt is now 1-7 in conference but perhaps finding its winning ways just in time to welcome your Hoyas into town.

Panthers to Know. The Pitt perimeter resembles those of their previous top-flight squads. Big East preseason Player of the Year Ashton Gibbs (16.7 ppg, 3.1 apg, 35.2 3FG%) anchors the Panther back-court and, despite shooting struggles this season, remains a threat to go for 20-plus. Gibbs’ load has been made a bit easier by the return of junior point guard Tray Woodall (11.6 ppg, 7.1 apg, 44.4 3FG%), an all-court menace who missed several games with a sore groin, from which he’s still feeling the effects. Still, Woodall seems to be rounding into form, as he went off for 17 points, including 4 three-pointers, and 9 assists against the Friars. Senior forward Nasir Robinson (12.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg) leads the team in rebounding despite standing just 6’5″, while sophomore guard Lamar Patterson (9.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 40 3FG%) provides some outside shooting while also out-rebounding his 6’5″ frame.

When Pittsburgh Has the Ball.

Panthers’ Strength. Offensive rebounding. Pitt always is tough on the boards, but this year is especially remarkable. The Panthers’ starting line-up goes, shortest to tallest, 5’11″, 6’2″, 6’5″, 6’5″, 6’9″, the last being sophomore Talib Zanna (6.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg). And yet the Panthers are the best offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing more than 45 percent of their own misses. That gaudy number hardly has been affected by conference play, as the Panthers have continued to lead the Big East in generating second chances despite their losing streak. As is often the case with rebounding, Pitt’s success is a team effort, with Robinson (63 O. Reb.) leading the charge and Zanna (56), Patterson (40), and junior forward Dante Taylor (6.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 56 O. Reb.) bringing reinforcements.

Hoyas’ Strength. Use length to force bad shots. Neither team’s strength has changed from the Rutgers game. Like Rutgers, Pitt is a tenacious but somewhat undersized team that struggles to get clean looks. Woodall’s returns has made good shots easier to come by, but a Hoya zone featuring the freshmen still should frustrate the Panthers. Pitt has been particularly susceptible to blocked shots this year, an area in which the Hoyas, led by Henry Sims (1.6 blk pg), excel.

Looming Question. Gibbs? Woodall’s return to form should help Gibbs, who intermittently was tasked with running the point during the former’s convalescence. Having to be more distributor than scorer, and not benefiting from easy looks set up by his teammate, Gibbs struggled to score. As a consequence, while his scoring average remains the same as last year, he has had to shoot more to get there: while last year he shot 47 percent from the field and a scorching 49 percent from three, this year he’s shot just 39 percent from the field and 35 percent from three. But Wednesday’s game against Providence may have been the turning point. In addition to Woodall’s excellent performance, Gibbs went for 22 points on the strength of five three-pointers. Whether Jason Clark or, in reserve, Greg Whittington is assigned to guard him, keeping Gibbs in check will be essential Saturday.

When Georgetown Has the Ball.

Hoyas’ Strength. Establish the (high and low) posts. One of the confusing aspects of Pitt’s struggles this year has been the Panthers’ defensive ineptitude. Previously a stout defensive team, Pitt has plummeted this year, rarely forcing turnovers and yielding plenty of open shots. In particular, the Panthers have given up more than 50 percent of opponents’ shots from two-point range, and have blocked less than 6 percent of opposing shots, both numbers that reflect the absence of a true interior defensive presence. Georgetown would do well to establish Sims, Nate Lubick, and Otto Porter inside on Saturday, and particularly to set up Sims in the high post, where he can attack the basket or feed a cutting teammate.

Panthers’ Strength. Defensive rebounding. As they do on offense, the Panthers clean the defensive boards effectively, yielding less than 35 percent of opposing misses as second chances. A Georgetown team that of late has generated plenty of extra possessions on the offensive glass will need to be more efficient against Pitt.

Looming Question. Free-throw shooting? Georgetown has been parading to the free throw line during conference play, leading the conference in free throw attempts as a percentage of shots overall. While getting the line has been easy, converting those opportunities hasn’t been, as the Hoyas have made just 65 percent of their free throws, the third-worst mark in the conference. Shaking off the slump may prove decisive tomorrow.

Prediction. It’s often said of rivalry games that, in predicting the outcome, the spectator should throw the teams’ records out the window. While the Panthers aren’t the Hoyas’ most natural rival, Georgetown should have its blood up a bit after last year’s embarrassing 72-57 stomping in Verizon. In any case, the proposition holds true: Pitt is better coached, more talented, and more dangerous, particularly at home, than its modest record suggests. Still, the Hoyas have proven themselves able road warriors this year, going 4-1 on the road, including wins over Louisville and Alabama. A bit of hand-to-hand combat in a hostile venue will be nothing new. Expect a tight, slow-paced affair that comes down the final minute. Georgetown 65, Pittsburgh 60.

1. Syracuse. Original prediction: #1 in Big East, 15-3 (28-3 overall). Currently: 8-1 (21-1 overall), #3 AP, #4 ESPN, #6 Pomeroy.
The Orange’s loss to Notre Dame exposed the formula for beating them: make Syracuse play half-court offense. The Orange shot just 34 percent for the game while getting few breakout opportunities. Easier said than done. Center Fab Melo’s ongoing academic issues offer opponents some home, but that didn’t stop the Orange from beating Cincinnati on the road Monday. Revised Prediction: unchanged.

2. Marquette. Original prediction: #4 in conference, 13-5 (25-6 overall). Currently: 6-2 (17-4 overall), #17 AP, #18 ESPN, #20 Pomeroy. The Golden Eagles got off to a 1-2 conference start thanks to a late collapse against Georgetown and an eminently defensible seven-point loss at Syracuse. But they’ve won five straight, even if some haven’t been exactly smooth. They enter Thursday tied with your Georgetown Hoyas for second in the conference. Revised Prediction: record unchanged, just two spots higher in the standings.

3. Cincinnati. Original Prediction: #8 in conference, 10-8 (20-11 overall). Currently: 5-3 (15-6 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #46 Pomeroy. The Bearcats and the next two teams are virtually inseparable. After an embarrassing home loss to St. John’s, the Bearcats dropped an overtime thriller at West Virginia, and a narrow home decision to Syracuse. But they will be favorites in all but two or three games the rest of the way. Having seemingly rectified motivational issues, Cincinnati seems poised to roll through the back half of the schedule. Revised Prediction: 12-6 (22-9 overall).

4. Georgetown. Original Prediction: #6 in conference, 12-6 (22-7 overall). Currently: 6-2, #9 AP, #10 ESPN, #15 Pomeroy. The Hoyas’ top-10 ranking and tie for second in the conference both feel more like received by default than earned. But in a mediocre year in the Big East, surviving may be enough. If the Cincinnati collapse was penance for the Marquette comeback, the Hoyas probably owe someone for Rutgers. Revised Prediction: record unchanged, two spots higher in the standings.

5. West Virginia. Original Prediction: #5 in conference, 12-6 (21-10 overall). Currently: 5-3 (15-6 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #32 Pomeroy. Until last night, the Mountaineers probably would have been third. But a one-sided loss at St. John’s, even if it’s just an aberration, cost them a game in the standings, which could make all the difference between No. 3 and No. 5. Although I have Huggins’ boys slated for a similar finish to the Bearcats and Hoyas, and they have tie breakers over both, this reflects the uncertainty of my prediction. Oh, and Kevin Jones is an absolute stud. Revised Prediction: unchanged.

6. Louisville. Original Prediction: #3 in conference, 13-5 (25-6 overall). Currently: 4-4 (16-5 overall), NR AP, #25 ESPN, #39 Pomeroy.  All right, so the 31-point loss at Providence was bad, really bad. And their four wins have been against teams with a combined conference mark of 9-25. But Louisville always closes strong: in the past five seasons, they’ve won at least five of their last seven games every season, winning six twice and all seven once. That proposition will be tested by this year’s stretch run, which includes Syracuse twice, Connecticut, Cincinnati, and West Virginia. But the Cardinals are still good for 11 conference wins, which is better than the three teams directly above them in the standings. Revised Prediction: 11-7 (23-8 overall).

7. Connecticut. Original Prediction: #2 in conference, 13-5 (24-6 overall). Currently: 4-3 in conference (14-5 overall), #24 AP, #19 ESPN, #37 Pomeroy. All this talent has to win at some point, right? The Huskies have lost four of six, all to unranked squads. But better to crater in January than in March, as there’s still plenty of time for a turnaround. They still have Syracuse twice, Georgetown, Marquette, and Louisville, but should be able to scrape together enough wins to make the tournament. Revised Prediction: 10-8 (21-9 overall).

8. Notre Dame. Original Prediction: #11 in conference, 8-10 (16-15 overall). Currently: 5-3 (13-8 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #64 Pomeroy. In 2009-10, the Irish weathered the loss of several players from the year before, and a midseason injury to star Luke Harangody, finishing 10-8 in conference and making the NCAA tournament. This year, the Irish lost three starters to graduation or early departure, then Tim Abromaitis to season-ending injury. Somehow–probably, as every member of the national media will tell you, it’s coach Mike Brey–Notre Dame is 5-3 and has a very outside chance at a ticket to the dance. They probably won’t make it that far, but they’re annoyingly overachieving again anyway. Expect every Irish broadcast this year to include the words “efficient” and “gritty.” Revised Prediction: 10-8 (18-13 overall).

9. Seton Hall. Original Prediction: #9 in conference, 9-9 (20-10 overall). Currently: 4-4 (15-5 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #49 Pomeroy. After high-profile home wins over West Virgina and Connecticut, it’s a bit surprising to see the Pirates sitting at just .500 in league play, thanks three straight losses. With Louisville, Marquette, and Connecticut all lined up before a rivalry game with Rutgers, things won’t get much easier. Revised Prediction: unchanged.

10. South Florida. Original Prediction: #15 in conference, 2-16 (9-22 overall). Currently: 5-3 (12-9 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #95 Pomeroy. Against all odds, the Bulls haven’t quit on Stan Heath yet. Perhaps I should abandon my skepticism, given that they’ve more than doubled the number of wins I predicted. But a brutal Syracuse-Cincinnati-Louisville-West Virginia closing stretch will be too much. Revised Prediction: 8-10 (15-16 overall).

11. Rutgers. Original Prediction: #13 in conference, 5-13 (12-19 overall). Currently: 3-5 (11-10 overall), NR, #104 Pomeroy. The Scarlet Knights beat Connecticut and Notre Dame, put a scare into Georgetown, and lost to DePaul. Such is the up-and-down life of a young squad. Revised Prediction: 7-11 (14-17 overall).

12. Villanova. Original Prediction: #10 in conference, 9-9 (16-14 overall). Currently: 3-6 (10-11 overall), NR, #75 Pomeroy. The Wildcats probably could be a spot or even two higher, but they’ve only played well enough to stay out of the cellar so far. A schedule that includes home-and-homes with Cincinnati and Marquette doesn’t help much. Revised Prediction: 7-11 (14-16 overall).

13. Pittsburgh. Original Prediction: #7, 11-7 (22-9 overall). Currently: 1-7 (12-9 overall), NR, #94 Pomeroy. The rest of the standings feel like a terrible game of rock-paper-scissors. The Panthers get the top notch: (1) to avoid a jinx in advance of Saturday’s game; and (2) out of deference to experience and Jamie Dixon. They finally banished the goose egg with a win over Providence, but still have to play the Hoyas, West Virginia twice, Louisville, and Connecticut. Revised Prediction: 5-13.

14. St. John’s. Original Prediction: #14, 5-13 (11-20 overall). Currently: 3-6 (9-11 overall), NR, #153 Pomeroy. Wins over West Virginia (convincingly) and Cincinnati look nice; five of your six conference defeats being by double digits doesn’t. The next few weeks will be trying, as the Red Storm face a trio of conference leaders (Syracuse, Cincinnati, Georgetown), sandwiched by two tricky road games (at Seton Hall and DePaul), further sandwiched by two non-conference games (Duke and UCLA). As much as Hoya fans might like to see Duke each year, at least we don’t have a schedule that looks like that. Revised Prediction: unchanged.

15. DePaul. Original Prediction: #16, 2-16 (11-19 overall). Currently: 2-6 (11-9 overall), NR, #162 Pomeroy. DePaul still isn’t anything great, or even good, but they’re far better than in miserable years past. Revised Prediction: 4-14 (13-17 overall).

16. Providence. Original Prediction: #12, 6-12 (17-14 overall). Currently: 1-7 (12-9 overall). Neil Young once sang, “I can’t go wrong til I get right.” I have no idea what that means, but I suspect Friars’ coach Ed Cooley might. Providence’s trip to DePaul may decide who gets to occupy the conference basement. Hopefully the Friars will be looking ahead to that showdown when the Hoyas visit Providence, a game of which I remain afraid. Revised Prediction: 4-14 (15-16 overall).

So will the Hoyas get in, and with what seed? Here’s a soon-to-be-wrong projection of the remaining games, the Hoyas’ likelihood of winning and what it will take to get various seeds come tournament time.

Tier 1: Heavy Favorites.  There are four remaining games, all at the Phone Booth, that stats guru Ken Pomeroy gives the Hoyas an 85 percent or better chance of winning: South Florida, St. John’s, Villanova, and Notre Dame. None of these games are shoo-ins: Notre Dame just beat previously undefeated and #1 Syracuse; Villanova is underperforming but immensely talented; South Florida has been a traditional cellar dweller but is off to a 5-2 conference start this year; and St. John’s for all its flaws, has a number of promising young players. Still, the Hoya faithful should expect at least a 3-1 finish to this stretch, if not a sweep. Prediction: 3-1.

Tier 2: Favorites. Georgetown also will be favored, though not quite so heavily, in its remaining home game against Connecticut, and in roadies at Providence and Pittsburgh. UConn, for all its recent struggles, is the defending national champion, a top-20 squad, and just a loss behind the Hoyas in the standings. Providence and Pittsburgh are near the bottom of the conference standings, but each is more than capable of pulling of a home upset. While Georgetown could win all of these games, 2 out of 3 wouldn’t be bad. Prediction: 2-1.

Tier 3: Underdogs. Finally, the Hoyas will be underdogs for their trips to Syracuse, Seton Hall, and Marquette. Syracuse has lost just once all year, remaining in the top 5 even after the loss to Notre Dame knocked the Orange from number 1. Marquette has bounced back after losses to Georgetown and Syracuse, and Seton Hall is just a game behind the pack at 4-3. Even though it’s a rivalry game, beating the Orange looks to be a particular long shot; games against the Pirates and Eagles figure to be a bit closer. Going 0 for 3 isn’t out of the question, but let’s figure the Hoyas pull off one big road win. Prediction: 1-2.

Seeds. So what seed could the Hoyas get in the dance? Well, it depends on how they finish. Major conference teams over the past three years have averaged the following regular winning percentages per seed: 6 seeds win an average of 70.8 percent of their regular season games; 5 seeds, 72.2 percent; 4 seeds, 76.6; 3 seeds, 76.7; and 2 seeds, 80.4.

Any fewer than 5 wins will make it difficult for Georgetown to get into the tournament. If the Hoyas finish 5-5, they’d finish at 20-8. Depending on the Hoyas’ performance in the conference tournament, that record should earn them at least a 7 seed, possibly a 6.

A 6-4 finish, as projected above, would leave the Hoyas 12-6 in conference, 21-7 overall, on the edge of a top-4 Big East seed and double-bye that comes with it. Depending on which teams Georgetown beats, and how it does in the Big East Tournament, the Hoyas might grab a 5 or a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

A 7-3 finish (by sweeping the first tiers, or nearly so and pulling out one roadie) would leave the Hoyas 13-5 in conference, 22-6 overall, and in serious consideration for a 3 seed. Anything better than that would result in mass delirium and outsized expectations.

S0, the prospects for an entry to the tourney look good. Once the Hoyas get to March, well….

We’ll update this page as Georgetown rolls along at our March to Madness page.

Polls. A decent road win and a shaky escape at home aren’t losses, which is more than several teams previously ranked ahead of Georgetown can say. Thanks to other squads’ losses, the Hoyas, previously ranked #10 in the AP and #12 in the coaches’ poll, ascend to #9 in the AP and #10 in the coaches’ poll.

Anti-New Jersey Conspiracy. Much was made in the wake of Saturday’s win over Rutgers that the Scarlet Knights were whistled for 29 fouls, while the Hoyas got tagged for just 14. The foul discrepancy became a particular issue because Georgetown prevailed by just two, and the Scarlet Knights were called for a pair of critical fouls in the waning minutes: an offensive foul by Eli Carter, who pushed off of Jason Clark to get free well beyond the three-point arc; and a holding foul on Mike Poole in the lane with eight seconds remaining, which sent Otto Porter to the line for the game-clinching points.

Admittedly, there were a ton of fouls called on Saturday. But Hoya fans need not worry that they unjustly stole one.

At this point, Rutgers complaining about those fouls seems a bit disingenuous. The Scarlet Knights foul at the highest rate in the Big East (and, save for a woeful Texas Tech squad, the highest rate of any major conference team). They have been whistled for 15, 11, and 8 more fouls than their opponents in previous games this year. Running the numbers differently, the Knights have been whistled for 20 or more fouls in the majority of their games thus far, and average being charged with more than 24 fouls per game. (By contrast, the Hoyas have hit the 20-foul mark just 4 times in 19 games, and eclipsed that number just once, not coincidentally in a 12-point loss to West Virginia; Georgetown averages around 17.5 fouls per game.) Coach Mike Rice, who repeatedly questioned the officiating after the game, can scarcely be surprised by Saturday’s result: it’s been happening all year.

In addition, gripes about foul calls don’t pass the eye test. It is evident to anyone who watched Saturday’s game (and, I presume based on the numbers, other Rutgers games this year) that the Scarlet Knights are a very tough defensive team, at least in part because they’re so physical. Were they less physical, they almost surely would be less effective defenders. Unfortunately, they can’t have the benefit of physical defensive play–opponents’ missed shots and turnovers–without the inherent risk that physical play will frequently cross the line. If that were the case, I’d take all of Georgetown’s sweet backdoor cuts without the turnovers resulting from forced passes into traffic, please. Does Rice eat cheesesteaks at every meal then complain when he packs on the pounds?

And finally, let’s address the last two fouls. Those particular fouls–with Carter fully extending his arms to get separation from Clark, and Poole wrapping his arm around Porter’s waist–are exactly the type of noticeable violations that, whatever the actual harm inflicted, inevitably draw the attention of referees. Still, some accounts imply that those sort of calls should not be made late in a tie game. Hoya fans might be sympathetic to this line of thinking: recall that in the Alabama game, Clark got whistled for a questionable foul with 13 seconds remaining, leading to free throws that, but for Hollis Thompson’s heroics, might have given the Tide the game. Nevertheless, a swallow-your-whistle approach would lead to far worse problems. If the officials should not call fouls as the rules prescribe, what should be the standard? Only call flagrant fouls? Blow the whistle only for blood? Particularly in a game that was called closely from the get-go, calling fouls the same way throughout the game, including in the final minutes, was best.

Ultimately, Rutgers is a very good defensive team, and at this rate will be a contender in the conference next year or the one after that. As long as the Knights play defense like they did Saturday, they’re likely to frustrate opposing offenses. And who knows, as their stature in the conference rises, they may even get a few calls.

The Week Ahead. Without a mid-week game to cover, we’ll be taking a broader look at what lies ahead for the Hoyas, and at what’s going on in the rest of the Big East. Saturday’s win put Georgetown just five (not counting the win over D-II Chaminade) short of the magical 20-win marker that generally ensures entry into the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, the rest of the conference is messier than usual: Georgetown is one of five teams with two conference losses apiece, just a game behind Syracuse, the Big East leader. Check back throughout the week for updates, then Friday for a preview of the Pitt game.