Conference play brings with it an annual rite of folly on this humble blog: staring into our cloudy crystal ball to see how it all will turn out. Here are one man’s semi-informed, wildly speculative, soon-to-be-laughably-wrong predictions about how this year’s Big East.
Tier 1: The lousy, conference-abandoning, hated, likely champs.
1. Syracuse. Currently: 13-0, #1 AP, #1 ESPN, #4 Pomeroy. Prediction: 15-3 (28-3 overall). Against Georgetown: Syracuse wins (at SU). It pains me to say, but the Orange appear to be closest to a sure thing in this year’s Big East. It’s been an eventful off-season near the Canadian border, as these soon-to-be-former-conference-mates engaged in realignment skulduggery and confronted allegations of their (now former) associate head coach’s sexual abuse. On the court, the team looks much like it did last year. Stalwart big man Rick Jackson is gone, but everyone else is back, including a back-court of Scoop Jardine, Brandon Triche, and an improved Dion Waiters; Kris Joseph, C.J. Fair, and James Southerland at forward; and Fab Melo and Baye Moussa Keita up front. An already eight-deep squad is joined by stellar freshmen Rakeem Christmas and Michael Carter-Williams. Although the Orange lack a bona fide star, and post scoring may be scarce, deep, balanced, and talented is enough to take the conference this year.
Tier 2: If the stars align, title contenders. These next three are the toughest to distinguish: all appear to be top-15 teams nationally with plenty of talent and only minor flaws.
2. Connecticut. Currently: 10-1, #8 AP, #9 ESPN, #19 Pomeroy. Prediction: 13-5 (24-6 overall). Against Georgetown: Georgetown wins (at GU). The Huskies are the best bet to spoil the Orange’s party. All-American Kemba Walker has moved on to to the NBA, but UConn might be even more talented this year. Sophomore guard Jeremy Lamb has stepped into the star role, while Shabazz Napier and freshman Ryan Boatright are a dynamic duo at the point. Up front, the Huskies added stud big man Andre Drummond through various scholarship shenanigans to a returning combination of Alex Oriakhi and Tyler Olander. Youth is a major question, but, given the names above plus wings Roscoe Smith and DeAndre Daniels, talent isn’t. So while Husky opponents won’t have nightmares of Kemba preening in their heads, UConn is restocked and primed for another deep Big East and tournament run.
3. Louisville. Currently: 12-0, #4 AP, #4 ESPN, #16 Pomeroy. Prediction: 13-5 (25-6 overall). Against Georgetown: Louisville wins (at Louisville). Rick Pitino was rightly praised for taking last year’s team, without its top four scorers from the year before, to a 12-6 conference finish and the Big East Tournament final. This year again brings plenty of roster turnover, but also plenty of talent. Guards Kyle Kuric, Peyton Siva, and Chris Smith form the battle-tested core of a balanced squad. The Cardinals’ biggest question mark may be inside, where emerging sophomore Gorgui Dieng and highly touted newcomer Chane Benahan may provide the answer.
4. Marquette. Currently: 11-1, #10 AP, #13 ESPN, #12 Pomeroy. Prediction: 13-5 (25-6 overall). Against Georgetown: Split (home-and-home). Seniors Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder highlight an otherwise young team, but those two all-conference candidates, a slew of talented underclassmen, and coach Buzz Williams’ ability to coax maximum effort in every game will be enough to make the Golden Eagles a threat to beat any team they face. Home-and-homes against Cincinnati, Villanova, and Georgetown, none easy but all beatable for Marquette, may determine how high the Eagles soar (sorry, couldn’t help myself).
Tier 3: Tournament teams missing a piece or two. The next three are very difficult to separate, three good-but-not-great likely tournament teams that may be separated only by tie-breakers.
5. West Virginia. Currently: 9-3, #31 Pomeroy. Prediction: 12-6 (21-10 overall). Against Georgetown: West Virgina wins (at West Virginia). The Mountaineers begin the program-in-transition phase of the standings. Bob Huggins returns a core trio of two seniors (all-everything Kevin Jones and point guard Truck Bryant) and one junior (everyone’s favorite Turk, Deniz Kilicli). After that, there’s one senior who scarcely plays, and eight–that’s right, 8!–freshmen, some just arrived, others red-shirted. Such a young team will have bumps along the way–an early loss to Kent State, for example–but the combination of experienced talent and the annual rebounding drill that Huggins-coached teams call basketball should keep the Mountaineers in the mix.
6. Georgetown. Currently: 10-1, #16 AP, #12 ESPN, #14 Pomeroy. Prediction: 12-6 (22-7 overall). We’ve covered the Hoyas in-depth thus far; suffice it to say, they have exceeded expectations and appear to be headed in the right direction. Frankly, of the teams listed (5)-(7) here, the Hoyas currently should be ranked in the lead. But non-conference success has spawned visions of Big East glory in seasons past, only to actually give way to middling conference results. This is the fifth consecutive season that Georgetown has started 10-1, but the last three have led to just .500 conference play combined. A top-heavy road schedule (of the five teams above, the Hoyas play at Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, and West Virginia, with homers against just Marquette and Connecticut) may hamper Georgetown’s ability to rise much higher. Given Pitt’s (No. 7, below) recent loss to Wagner, the Mountaineers get the narrow nod over the Hoyas, if only to stave off a jinx.
7. Pittsburgh. Currently: 11-2, #15 AP, #22 ESPN, #39 Pomeroy. Prediction: 11-7 (22-9 overall). Against Georgetown: Pitt wins (at Pitt). Like Georgetown, Pitt is in transition, replacing the departed Brad Wannamaker, Gary McGhee, and Gilbert Brown. Also like the Hoyas, the Panthers return a seasoned trio (Nasir Robinson, Travon Woodall, and Big East preseason Player of the Year Ashton Gibbs) along with a glut of younger players. They’ve completed the transformation from Ben Howland-era rugged defense and ugly offense to a smooth offense and a bit more lax on the defensive end. How far Pitt can go depends on shoring up the defense, the health of the injured Woodall, and the development of the underclassmen, who no longer include highly touted and recently departed freshman Khem Birch. Home losses to a good Long Beach State team and a decent Wagner team suggest the Panthers may not be quite so mighty as in recent seasons.
8. Cincinnati. Currently: 9-3, #45 Pomeroy. Prediction: 10-8 (20-11 overall). Against Georgetown: Georgetown wins (at GU). The Bearcats return their top four scorers from last year’s team, which was the best in coach Mick Cronin’s tenure, winning 26 games and advancing to the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. But the Bearcats’ uneven performance to date, including home losses against Presbyterian and Marshall before the embarrassing brawl-ending loss to Xavier, has tempered high expectations. Still, the roster has talent: big man Yancy Gates promises to be a handful, whether to opponents or to his own coach, while guards Sean Kilpatrick, Dion Dixon, and Cashmere Wright provide the perimeter punch, so to speak. And, as grotesque as it sounds, the self-induced embarrassment of the Xavier brawl may have rallied this team, which has blown out its last four foes despite being short-handed. Regardless, this is not a team you want to face, whether for basketball reasons or not.
Tier 4: Bubble squads in search of a few big wins.
9. Seton Hall. Currently: 11-1, #55 Pomeroy. Prediction: 9-9 (20-10 overall). Against Georgetown: Seton Hall wins in an upset (at Seton Hall). Seton Hall finished a decent 7-11 last year; although they lost four of their top six players, including leading scorer and unconscionable gunner Jeremy Hazell, the Pirates are off to a solid start this year, primarily thanks to senior power forward Herb Pope, who’s finally harnessed his potential to average a double-double. A non-conference resume including respectable wins over Dayton, VCU, St. Joe’s, Auburn, and Wake has been blemished only by a defensible loss to Northwestern. Still, the Pirates currently go just six deep, and that paltry number includes two freshman rotation players and a sophomore with scant experience last year. It’s unclear whether Pope can carry the entire team by himself.
10. Villanova. Currently: 7-5, #60 Pomeroy. Prediction: 9-9 (16-14 overall). Against Georgetown: Georgetown wins (at GU). Despite losing the Coreys (Fisher and Stokes, last year’s two leading scorers) and another pair of seniors, Jay Wright returns a talented squad, headlined by a trio of juniors: big man Mouphtaou Yarou; wing Dominic Cheek; and, as always, a point guard, this year Maalik Wayns. But the Wildcats have struggled in the early going, dropping an eyebrow-raiser to Santa Clara along with more defensible losses to Saint Louis, Missouri, and Temple. The bottom may have dropped out in a seventeen-point loss to crosstown rival St. Joe’s; if any of the next six teams are halfway decent, they may be able to slide into this spot.
Tier 5: Waiting for reinforcements.
11. Notre Dame. Currently: 8-5, #68 Pomeroy. Prediction: 8-10 (16-15 overall). Against Georgetown: Georgetown wins (at GU). After last year’s surprise run to a 14-4 conference mark, 27 wins over all, and a number two seed, the Irish planned to replace starters Ben Hansbrough, Tyrone Nash, and Carleton Scott (the last of whom jumped to the NBA early). That task was formidable; also replacing last year’s leading scorer Tim Abromaitis, who suffered by an early, season-ending injury, may be impossible. So now Notre Dame must rely on the development of back-court duo Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant. While that’s a talented combo, and coach Mike Brey always seems to adapt to his personnel, the attrition may be too much for this year.
12. Providence. Currently: 11-2, #119 Pomeroy. Prediction: 6-12 (17-14 overall). Against Georgetown: Georgetown sweeps (home-and-home). It was an eventful off-season for Providence, which lost Marshon Brooks to the NBA, coach Keno Davis to the scrap heap, wing Duke Mondy to transfer, and big man Kadeem Batts to indefinite suspension. New coach Ed Cooley has a solid returning back-court of sophomore Gerard Coleman and junior Vincent Council; fellow guard Bryce Cotton and surprise freshman LaDontae Henton round out a four-man core that averages nearly 87 percent of the Friars’ scoring. While that’s fine on the perimeter, Providence likely will struggle inside, particularly without Batts.
13. Rutgers. Currently: 7-5, #131 Pomeroy. Prediction: 5-13 (12-19 overall). Against Georgetown: Georgetown wins (at GU). Like several other Big East-ers, the Scarlet Knights are a young bunch this year. Mike Rice goes ten-deep on most nights, but that lineup features no seniors and just two juniors. Rutgers hasn’t beaten anyone halfway decent this year, and the entire year will be a learning experience. Still, the deep roster is full of promise, most notably in the freshman guard trio Eli Carter, Myles Mack, and Jerome Seagears. A deep and promising squad may eventually be enough to move the Knights up a few notches in a soft bottom half of the conference, but we’ll slot them here for now.
14. St. John’s. Currently: 6-5, #171 Pomeroy. Prediction: 5-13 (11-20 overall). Against Georgetown: Georgetown sweeps (home-and-home). St. John’s basketball is back! Or it sort-of was, for one season of Norm Roberts-coached players. Steve Lavin took his predecessors’ senior-laden crew to the NCAA Tournament, then brought in a highly touted freshman class along with two juco transfers. But two freshmen failed to qualify, one just became eligible, and one juco enrollee already has transferred out. Add in Lavin’s health problems, and the Red Storm’s hoops renaissance is far less promising than it looked in March. With just seven recruited players–including five freshmen, a junior, and a juco transfer–suiting up, the Red Storm will resemble their MSG co-tenants, the New York Knicks. Well, at least in their worrying lack of depth. As for the New York college basketball renaissance, it looks like the Storm will have to build for at least another year.
Tier 6: When does SMU arrive? What about UCF?
15. South Florida. Currently: 7-6, #133 Pomeroy. Prediction: 2-16 (9-22 overall). Against Georgetown: Georgetown wins (at GU). It’s still early, but another year seems to be heading toward another bottom-three finish for the Bulls, who have finished 14th or worse every year they’ve been in the Big East, save one. Gus Gilchrist leads a halfway decent front court that also includes Ron Anderson and Toarlyn Fitzpatrick, but the back-court is weak, and the team seems listless generally, scoring just 40 in an embarrassing lost to woeful Auburn, and losing by twenty-plus to both VCU and Kansas. If anyone is poised to break DePaul’s run at the bottom of the conference, it appears to be the Bulls.
16. DePaul. Currently: 9-3, #151 Pomeroy. Prediction: 2-16 (11-19). Against Georgetown: Georgetown wins (at DePaul). But to be the champ, you got to beat (or in this case, lose to) the champ. The Blue Demons are the three-time defending last-place team in the conference, winning 1 conference game in each of the past two seasons, a slight improvement on the goose egg three years ago. This year’s squad appears to be better: sophomore duo Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young have added a bit more seasoning, and the Demons have pulled off wins over Texas Tech and Arizona State, their first non-Big East wins over a major-conference opponent since a one-point squeaker over Northwestern in November 2007. (!!!) While early losses to Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Ole Miss suggest the winter will still be long in the Windy City, Oliver Purnell’s up-tempo system will at least make the Blue Demons’ games eventful, and there appears to be some traction from the abject failures of seasons past.
