At nearly half way through the conference slate, we’re far enough along for my Big East predictions to have gone predictably, horribly wrong. Here are one man’s updated rankings, along with some sure-to-be-wrong-again prognostications.
1. Syracuse. Original prediction: #1 in Big East, 15-3 (28-3 overall). Currently: 8-1 (21-1 overall), #3 AP, #4 ESPN, #6 Pomeroy.
The Orange’s loss to Notre Dame exposed the formula for beating them: make Syracuse play half-court offense. The Orange shot just 34 percent for the game while getting few breakout opportunities. Easier said than done. Center Fab Melo’s ongoing academic issues offer opponents some home, but that didn’t stop the Orange from beating Cincinnati on the road Monday. Revised Prediction: unchanged.
2. Marquette. Original prediction: #4 in conference, 13-5 (25-6 overall). Currently: 6-2 (17-4 overall), #17 AP, #18 ESPN, #20 Pomeroy. The Golden Eagles got off to a 1-2 conference start thanks to a late collapse against Georgetown and an eminently defensible seven-point loss at Syracuse. But they’ve won five straight, even if some haven’t been exactly smooth. They enter Thursday tied with your Georgetown Hoyas for second in the conference. Revised Prediction: record unchanged, just two spots higher in the standings.
3. Cincinnati. Original Prediction: #8 in conference, 10-8 (20-11 overall). Currently: 5-3 (15-6 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #46 Pomeroy. The Bearcats and the next two teams are virtually inseparable. After an embarrassing home loss to St. John’s, the Bearcats dropped an overtime thriller at West Virginia, and a narrow home decision to Syracuse. But they will be favorites in all but two or three games the rest of the way. Having seemingly rectified motivational issues, Cincinnati seems poised to roll through the back half of the schedule. Revised Prediction: 12-6 (22-9 overall).
4. Georgetown. Original Prediction: #6 in conference, 12-6 (22-7 overall). Currently: 6-2, #9 AP, #10 ESPN, #15 Pomeroy. The Hoyas’ top-10 ranking and tie for second in the conference both feel more like received by default than earned. But in a mediocre year in the Big East, surviving may be enough. If the Cincinnati collapse was penance for the Marquette comeback, the Hoyas probably owe someone for Rutgers. Revised Prediction: record unchanged, two spots higher in the standings.
5. West Virginia. Original Prediction: #5 in conference, 12-6 (21-10 overall). Currently: 5-3 (15-6 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #32 Pomeroy. Until last night, the Mountaineers probably would have been third. But a one-sided loss at St. John’s, even if it’s just an aberration, cost them a game in the standings, which could make all the difference between No. 3 and No. 5. Although I have Huggins’ boys slated for a similar finish to the Bearcats and Hoyas, and they have tie breakers over both, this reflects the uncertainty of my prediction. Oh, and Kevin Jones is an absolute stud. Revised Prediction: unchanged.
6. Louisville. Original Prediction: #3 in conference, 13-5 (25-6 overall). Currently: 4-4 (16-5 overall), NR AP, #25 ESPN, #39 Pomeroy. All right, so the 31-point loss at Providence was bad, really bad. And their four wins have been against teams with a combined conference mark of 9-25. But Louisville always closes strong: in the past five seasons, they’ve won at least five of their last seven games every season, winning six twice and all seven once. That proposition will be tested by this year’s stretch run, which includes Syracuse twice, Connecticut, Cincinnati, and West Virginia. But the Cardinals are still good for 11 conference wins, which is better than the three teams directly above them in the standings. Revised Prediction: 11-7 (23-8 overall).
7. Connecticut. Original Prediction: #2 in conference, 13-5 (24-6 overall). Currently: 4-3 in conference (14-5 overall), #24 AP, #19 ESPN, #37 Pomeroy. All this talent has to win at some point, right? The Huskies have lost four of six, all to unranked squads. But better to crater in January than in March, as there’s still plenty of time for a turnaround. They still have Syracuse twice, Georgetown, Marquette, and Louisville, but should be able to scrape together enough wins to make the tournament. Revised Prediction: 10-8 (21-9 overall).
8. Notre Dame. Original Prediction: #11 in conference, 8-10 (16-15 overall). Currently: 5-3 (13-8 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #64 Pomeroy. In 2009-10, the Irish weathered the loss of several players from the year before, and a midseason injury to star Luke Harangody, finishing 10-8 in conference and making the NCAA tournament. This year, the Irish lost three starters to graduation or early departure, then Tim Abromaitis to season-ending injury. Somehow–probably, as every member of the national media will tell you, it’s coach Mike Brey–Notre Dame is 5-3 and has a very outside chance at a ticket to the dance. They probably won’t make it that far, but they’re annoyingly overachieving again anyway. Expect every Irish broadcast this year to include the words “efficient” and “gritty.” Revised Prediction: 10-8 (18-13 overall).
9. Seton Hall. Original Prediction: #9 in conference, 9-9 (20-10 overall). Currently: 4-4 (15-5 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #49 Pomeroy. After high-profile home wins over West Virgina and Connecticut, it’s a bit surprising to see the Pirates sitting at just .500 in league play, thanks three straight losses. With Louisville, Marquette, and Connecticut all lined up before a rivalry game with Rutgers, things won’t get much easier. Revised Prediction: unchanged.
10. South Florida. Original Prediction: #15 in conference, 2-16 (9-22 overall). Currently: 5-3 (12-9 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #95 Pomeroy. Against all odds, the Bulls haven’t quit on Stan Heath yet. Perhaps I should abandon my skepticism, given that they’ve more than doubled the number of wins I predicted. But a brutal Syracuse-Cincinnati-Louisville-West Virginia closing stretch will be too much. Revised Prediction: 8-10 (15-16 overall).
11. Rutgers. Original Prediction: #13 in conference, 5-13 (12-19 overall). Currently: 3-5 (11-10 overall), NR, #104 Pomeroy. The Scarlet Knights beat Connecticut and Notre Dame, put a scare into Georgetown, and lost to DePaul. Such is the up-and-down life of a young squad. Revised Prediction: 7-11 (14-17 overall).
12. Villanova. Original Prediction: #10 in conference, 9-9 (16-14 overall). Currently: 3-6 (10-11 overall), NR, #75 Pomeroy. The Wildcats probably could be a spot or even two higher, but they’ve only played well enough to stay out of the cellar so far. A schedule that includes home-and-homes with Cincinnati and Marquette doesn’t help much. Revised Prediction: 7-11 (14-16 overall).
13. Pittsburgh. Original Prediction: #7, 11-7 (22-9 overall). Currently: 1-7 (12-9 overall), NR, #94 Pomeroy. The rest of the standings feel like a terrible game of rock-paper-scissors. The Panthers get the top notch: (1) to avoid a jinx in advance of Saturday’s game; and (2) out of deference to experience and Jamie Dixon. They finally banished the goose egg with a win over Providence, but still have to play the Hoyas, West Virginia twice, Louisville, and Connecticut. Revised Prediction: 5-13.
14. St. John’s. Original Prediction: #14, 5-13 (11-20 overall). Currently: 3-6 (9-11 overall), NR, #153 Pomeroy. Wins over West Virginia (convincingly) and Cincinnati look nice; five of your six conference defeats being by double digits doesn’t. The next few weeks will be trying, as the Red Storm face a trio of conference leaders (Syracuse, Cincinnati, Georgetown), sandwiched by two tricky road games (at Seton Hall and DePaul), further sandwiched by two non-conference games (Duke and UCLA). As much as Hoya fans might like to see Duke each year, at least we don’t have a schedule that looks like that. Revised Prediction: unchanged.
15. DePaul. Original Prediction: #16, 2-16 (11-19 overall). Currently: 2-6 (11-9 overall), NR, #162 Pomeroy. DePaul still isn’t anything great, or even good, but they’re far better than in miserable years past. Revised Prediction: 4-14 (13-17 overall).
16. Providence. Original Prediction: #12, 6-12 (17-14 overall). Currently: 1-7 (12-9 overall). Neil Young once sang, “I can’t go wrong til I get right.” I have no idea what that means, but I suspect Friars’ coach Ed Cooley might. Providence’s trip to DePaul may decide who gets to occupy the conference basement. Hopefully the Friars will be looking ahead to that showdown when the Hoyas visit Providence, a game of which I remain afraid. Revised Prediction: 4-14 (15-16 overall).
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Checking in on Big East Predictions
At nearly half way through the conference slate, we’re far enough along for my Big East predictions to have gone predictably, horribly wrong. Here are one man’s updated rankings, along with some sure-to-be-wrong-again prognostications.
1. Syracuse. Original prediction: #1 in Big East, 15-3 (28-3 overall). Currently: 8-1 (21-1 overall), #3 AP, #4 ESPN, #6 Pomeroy.
The Orange’s loss to Notre Dame exposed the formula for beating them: make Syracuse play half-court offense. The Orange shot just 34 percent for the game while getting few breakout opportunities. Easier said than done. Center Fab Melo’s ongoing academic issues offer opponents some home, but that didn’t stop the Orange from beating Cincinnati on the road Monday. Revised Prediction: unchanged.
2. Marquette. Original prediction: #4 in conference, 13-5 (25-6 overall). Currently: 6-2 (17-4 overall), #17 AP, #18 ESPN, #20 Pomeroy. The Golden Eagles got off to a 1-2 conference start thanks to a late collapse against Georgetown and an eminently defensible seven-point loss at Syracuse. But they’ve won five straight, even if some haven’t been exactly smooth. They enter Thursday tied with your Georgetown Hoyas for second in the conference. Revised Prediction: record unchanged, just two spots higher in the standings.
3. Cincinnati. Original Prediction: #8 in conference, 10-8 (20-11 overall). Currently: 5-3 (15-6 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #46 Pomeroy. The Bearcats and the next two teams are virtually inseparable. After an embarrassing home loss to St. John’s, the Bearcats dropped an overtime thriller at West Virginia, and a narrow home decision to Syracuse. But they will be favorites in all but two or three games the rest of the way. Having seemingly rectified motivational issues, Cincinnati seems poised to roll through the back half of the schedule. Revised Prediction: 12-6 (22-9 overall).
4. Georgetown. Original Prediction: #6 in conference, 12-6 (22-7 overall). Currently: 6-2, #9 AP, #10 ESPN, #15 Pomeroy. The Hoyas’ top-10 ranking and tie for second in the conference both feel more like received by default than earned. But in a mediocre year in the Big East, surviving may be enough. If the Cincinnati collapse was penance for the Marquette comeback, the Hoyas probably owe someone for Rutgers. Revised Prediction: record unchanged, two spots higher in the standings.
5. West Virginia. Original Prediction: #5 in conference, 12-6 (21-10 overall). Currently: 5-3 (15-6 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #32 Pomeroy. Until last night, the Mountaineers probably would have been third. But a one-sided loss at St. John’s, even if it’s just an aberration, cost them a game in the standings, which could make all the difference between No. 3 and No. 5. Although I have Huggins’ boys slated for a similar finish to the Bearcats and Hoyas, and they have tie breakers over both, this reflects the uncertainty of my prediction. Oh, and Kevin Jones is an absolute stud. Revised Prediction: unchanged.
6. Louisville. Original Prediction: #3 in conference, 13-5 (25-6 overall). Currently: 4-4 (16-5 overall), NR AP, #25 ESPN, #39 Pomeroy. All right, so the 31-point loss at Providence was bad, really bad. And their four wins have been against teams with a combined conference mark of 9-25. But Louisville always closes strong: in the past five seasons, they’ve won at least five of their last seven games every season, winning six twice and all seven once. That proposition will be tested by this year’s stretch run, which includes Syracuse twice, Connecticut, Cincinnati, and West Virginia. But the Cardinals are still good for 11 conference wins, which is better than the three teams directly above them in the standings. Revised Prediction: 11-7 (23-8 overall).
7. Connecticut. Original Prediction: #2 in conference, 13-5 (24-6 overall). Currently: 4-3 in conference (14-5 overall), #24 AP, #19 ESPN, #37 Pomeroy. All this talent has to win at some point, right? The Huskies have lost four of six, all to unranked squads. But better to crater in January than in March, as there’s still plenty of time for a turnaround. They still have Syracuse twice, Georgetown, Marquette, and Louisville, but should be able to scrape together enough wins to make the tournament. Revised Prediction: 10-8 (21-9 overall).
8. Notre Dame. Original Prediction: #11 in conference, 8-10 (16-15 overall). Currently: 5-3 (13-8 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #64 Pomeroy. In 2009-10, the Irish weathered the loss of several players from the year before, and a midseason injury to star Luke Harangody, finishing 10-8 in conference and making the NCAA tournament. This year, the Irish lost three starters to graduation or early departure, then Tim Abromaitis to season-ending injury. Somehow–probably, as every member of the national media will tell you, it’s coach Mike Brey–Notre Dame is 5-3 and has a very outside chance at a ticket to the dance. They probably won’t make it that far, but they’re annoyingly overachieving again anyway. Expect every Irish broadcast this year to include the words “efficient” and “gritty.” Revised Prediction: 10-8 (18-13 overall).
9. Seton Hall. Original Prediction: #9 in conference, 9-9 (20-10 overall). Currently: 4-4 (15-5 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #49 Pomeroy. After high-profile home wins over West Virgina and Connecticut, it’s a bit surprising to see the Pirates sitting at just .500 in league play, thanks three straight losses. With Louisville, Marquette, and Connecticut all lined up before a rivalry game with Rutgers, things won’t get much easier. Revised Prediction: unchanged.
10. South Florida. Original Prediction: #15 in conference, 2-16 (9-22 overall). Currently: 5-3 (12-9 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #95 Pomeroy. Against all odds, the Bulls haven’t quit on Stan Heath yet. Perhaps I should abandon my skepticism, given that they’ve more than doubled the number of wins I predicted. But a brutal Syracuse-Cincinnati-Louisville-West Virginia closing stretch will be too much. Revised Prediction: 8-10 (15-16 overall).
11. Rutgers. Original Prediction: #13 in conference, 5-13 (12-19 overall). Currently: 3-5 (11-10 overall), NR, #104 Pomeroy. The Scarlet Knights beat Connecticut and Notre Dame, put a scare into Georgetown, and lost to DePaul. Such is the up-and-down life of a young squad. Revised Prediction: 7-11 (14-17 overall).
12. Villanova. Original Prediction: #10 in conference, 9-9 (16-14 overall). Currently: 3-6 (10-11 overall), NR, #75 Pomeroy. The Wildcats probably could be a spot or even two higher, but they’ve only played well enough to stay out of the cellar so far. A schedule that includes home-and-homes with Cincinnati and Marquette doesn’t help much. Revised Prediction: 7-11 (14-16 overall).
13. Pittsburgh. Original Prediction: #7, 11-7 (22-9 overall). Currently: 1-7 (12-9 overall), NR, #94 Pomeroy. The rest of the standings feel like a terrible game of rock-paper-scissors. The Panthers get the top notch: (1) to avoid a jinx in advance of Saturday’s game; and (2) out of deference to experience and Jamie Dixon. They finally banished the goose egg with a win over Providence, but still have to play the Hoyas, West Virginia twice, Louisville, and Connecticut. Revised Prediction: 5-13.
14. St. John’s. Original Prediction: #14, 5-13 (11-20 overall). Currently: 3-6 (9-11 overall), NR, #153 Pomeroy. Wins over West Virginia (convincingly) and Cincinnati look nice; five of your six conference defeats being by double digits doesn’t. The next few weeks will be trying, as the Red Storm face a trio of conference leaders (Syracuse, Cincinnati, Georgetown), sandwiched by two tricky road games (at Seton Hall and DePaul), further sandwiched by two non-conference games (Duke and UCLA). As much as Hoya fans might like to see Duke each year, at least we don’t have a schedule that looks like that. Revised Prediction: unchanged.
15. DePaul. Original Prediction: #16, 2-16 (11-19 overall). Currently: 2-6 (11-9 overall), NR, #162 Pomeroy. DePaul still isn’t anything great, or even good, but they’re far better than in miserable years past. Revised Prediction: 4-14 (13-17 overall).
16. Providence. Original Prediction: #12, 6-12 (17-14 overall). Currently: 1-7 (12-9 overall). Neil Young once sang, “I can’t go wrong til I get right.” I have no idea what that means, but I suspect Friars’ coach Ed Cooley might. Providence’s trip to DePaul may decide who gets to occupy the conference basement. Hopefully the Friars will be looking ahead to that showdown when the Hoyas visit Providence, a game of which I remain afraid. Revised Prediction: 4-14 (15-16 overall).
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