When it comes to getting into the NCAA Tournament field of 64 65 68 teams as an at-large bid from a big conference, conventional wisdom suggests that you have to get to 20 wins. Georgetown’s win over Rutgers was its 16th of the season, though only its 15th against D-1 competition, which is what counts for tournament purposes. At least 11 games remain, and perhaps more if the Hoyas advance in the Big East Tournament. So simply playing .500 the rest of the way ought to get the Hoyas into the tournament. But based on the encouraging results to date, many Hoya faithful are expecting bigger and better things than mere entrance to the dance. And prominent bracketologists currently have Georgetown projected as a 3 seed.
So will the Hoyas get in, and with what seed? Here’s a soon-to-be-wrong projection of the remaining games, the Hoyas’ likelihood of winning and what it will take to get various seeds come tournament time.
Tier 1: Heavy Favorites. There are four remaining games, all at the Phone Booth, that stats guru Ken Pomeroy gives the Hoyas an 85 percent or better chance of winning: South Florida, St. John’s, Villanova, and Notre Dame. None of these games are shoo-ins: Notre Dame just beat previously undefeated and #1 Syracuse; Villanova is underperforming but immensely talented; South Florida has been a traditional cellar dweller but is off to a 5-2 conference start this year; and St. John’s for all its flaws, has a number of promising young players. Still, the Hoya faithful should expect at least a 3-1 finish to this stretch, if not a sweep. Prediction: 3-1.
Tier 2: Favorites. Georgetown also will be favored, though not quite so heavily, in its remaining home game against Connecticut, and in roadies at Providence and Pittsburgh. UConn, for all its recent struggles, is the defending national champion, a top-20 squad, and just a loss behind the Hoyas in the standings. Providence and Pittsburgh are near the bottom of the conference standings, but each is more than capable of pulling of a home upset. While Georgetown could win all of these games, 2 out of 3 wouldn’t be bad. Prediction: 2-1.
Tier 3: Underdogs. Finally, the Hoyas will be underdogs for their trips to Syracuse, Seton Hall, and Marquette. Syracuse has lost just once all year, remaining in the top 5 even after the loss to Notre Dame knocked the Orange from number 1. Marquette has bounced back after losses to Georgetown and Syracuse, and Seton Hall is just a game behind the pack at 4-3. Even though it’s a rivalry game, beating the Orange looks to be a particular long shot; games against the Pirates and Eagles figure to be a bit closer. Going 0 for 3 isn’t out of the question, but let’s figure the Hoyas pull off one big road win. Prediction: 1-2.
Seeds. So what seed could the Hoyas get in the dance? Well, it depends on how they finish. Major conference teams over the past three years have averaged the following regular winning percentages per seed: 6 seeds win an average of 70.8 percent of their regular season games; 5 seeds, 72.2 percent; 4 seeds, 76.6; 3 seeds, 76.7; and 2 seeds, 80.4.
Any fewer than 5 wins will make it difficult for Georgetown to get into the tournament. If the Hoyas finish 5-5, they’d finish at 20-8. Depending on the Hoyas’ performance in the conference tournament, that record should earn them at least a 7 seed, possibly a 6.
A 6-4 finish, as projected above, would leave the Hoyas 12-6 in conference, 21-7 overall, on the edge of a top-4 Big East seed and double-bye that comes with it. Depending on which teams Georgetown beats, and how it does in the Big East Tournament, the Hoyas might grab a 5 or a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
A 7-3 finish (by sweeping the first tiers, or nearly so and pulling out one roadie) would leave the Hoyas 13-5 in conference, 22-6 overall, and in serious consideration for a 3 seed. Anything better than that would result in mass delirium and outsized expectations.
S0, the prospects for an entry to the tourney look good. Once the Hoyas get to March, well….
We’ll update this page as Georgetown rolls along at our March to Madness page.
