Georgetown fans will spend the portion of the next six weeks that they’re not licking their wounds from the 2010 NCAA Tournament or convincing themselves that Moses Abraham is the next Patrick Ewing fretting about whether Greg Monroe will return for another season. The Hoyas graduate no seniors and have two highly touted recruits coming in next year, but everyone’s attention will be fixed on No. 10.
NCAA Rule Change
While Hoya fans everywhere hope for another year out of the big fella, a rule change by the NCAA last year means that they won’t have to hope for too long. Before getting to the rule change, some background is appropriate. The NBA requires early entrants into the draft (early meaning players who have not exhausted their NCAA eligibility) to declare their intention to enter the draft by May 1. Players that are uncertain of their draft prospects can tentatively declare their entry into the draft. Hoya fans whose memory hasn’t been completely wiped out by the Ohio massacre will recall that Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green pursued this option in 2007, with Hibbert eventually deciding to return to the Hilltop, and Green opting to go pro.
Previously, those players who tentatively declared for the draft had until mid-June to render a final decision: stay in the draft or go back to college. This allotted the players five weeks to attend pre-draft camps, visit pro teams, and consult with their families, gurus, and whatnot, as long as they did so exclusively on their own dime. Players that thought they might do better a year later could opt to return to school, while those that didn’t think at all, had delusions of grandeur, or who found out that they would get drafted high (i.e., Green) opted to stay in.
While that timeline worked well for the players, it did not for their college coaches, who had to leave a scholarship open for five weeks, perhaps only to be left to pick from the late-signing-period scrap heap for a replacement for their NBA-bound star. Of course, the NCAA is more concerned with coaches than players–that’s why Coach K can sell insurance mid-game and JTIII shills Jordan-brand sneakers while their players can barely hold part-time jobs. Acting on that concern, as reported here, the NCAA has moved up the previous mid-June deadline to May 8. Therefore, this year’s underclassmen, Monroe included, will have one week between their deadline to declare and their deadline to return to campus. (The players could declare before May 1, giving them more time, and indeed South Florida star Dominique Jones has already done so–phew!)
Why Monroe Might Not Be Back
Monroe’s stock has held relatively steady for the past two years, with NBA pundits projecting him to go between 5th and 10th in the draft. At this point, it appears as though Monroe is a known quantity–incredibly skilled, a good teammate, but lacking quickness, leaping ability, intensity and a right hand. He can fix the last of those shortcomings with another year in school, but can fix it just as easily (perhaps more so) in the pros. In other words, another year in school might not lead to a rise in draft stock for him. Plus, he’ll have to wait another year to buy an awful suit that is the rite of passage into the NBA.
A second reason that Monroe might opt to go pro is the looming 2001 expiration of the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement. Rumblings across the NBA suggest that the expiration of the CBA will be accompanied by an owner-imposed lock-out, during which the teams will not sign any new players, including 2011 draftees. (A lock-out might force players to capitulate to ownership demands regarding the terms of a new CBA.) 2011 draftees, which Monroe figures to be if he returns this year, would not get paid until any lock-out ends. Labor negotiations will likely be contentious, increasing the likelihood of a lock-out; poor economic conditions mean that the owners will want to pay less next time around, something the players will undoubtedly resist. The upshot for college players like Monroe is a strong incentive, if money is an issue, to either declare this year for the draft, or to wait until 2012.
Why Monroe Might Be Back
Of course, after the Ohio loss, Monroe said that he’d be back next year. JTIII, in perhaps his only prudent coaching move of the day, said that Monroe would need to spend some time thinking about the coming year after the sting of postseason disappointment had lessened, and outside the scrutiny of national press. Still, that announcement seems consistent with rumors that Monroe really likes life on campus. Moreover, a January New York Times piece about Monroe suggested that he’s getting no pressure on the home front to enter the draft, something that cannot be said for every college star.
History may also lure Monroe back. Before declaring for the draft, Green and Hibbert were the cornerstones of a team that won the Big East tournament, won a regular-season crown, and made both the Sweet Sixteen and the Final Four. (In Hibbert’s senior season, the Hoyas picked up another regular season title, made it to the Big East tournament final, then flamed out in the second round of the tournament.) In two years on campus, Monroe’s teams have not won a post-season game outside the conference tournament, and are 3-4 even counting the Big East. In other words, two sub-par seasons that, while not exclusively attributable to Monroe, will be the sum of his Georgetown legacy, should he leave now. The absence of team success, at least by Georgetown’s standards, stands in stark contrast to the Green and Hibbert era, let alone to the halcyon days of the 1980s.
The Hoya faithful will dissect every article, rumor, and quotation between now and May 8. Here’s hoping Greg stays.
