Tuesday Update: How the other half plays

The Hoyas can’t afford to look past their first-round game, but that’s the great thing about being a fan–endless speculation, what-ifs, and thinking three games ahead.  So here’s a quick look at the two teams that Georgetown could face in the second round on Saturday IF the Hoyas win Thursday.

Tennessee is a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a vest. The Volunteers have seen the highest of highs, being the only team besides Georgetown to beat two #1 seeds (Kansas and Kentucky).  Then again, both of those wins were at home, and they haven’t beaten a tournament team away from home.  Buuuuuut, they are still #14/#15 in the rankings (the mirror image of the #15/#14 Hoyas).  And, they’ve won 5 of 6 coming into the tournament.  Yet their one loss, in the last game, was a 29-point stink bomb at the hands of Kentucky.  Still, they’ve gone 25-8, a pretty impressive record.  On the other hand, that’s in a relatively weak SEC, with just the 46th-strongest schedule in the country (the Hoyas are 1st).  Last, they had to suspend four players (three of whom were let back on the team) who were arrested on gun charges in January, seriously disrupting their season.

So what to make of Tennessee?  They’re good, especially at home, and compare favorably to the other 6 seeds in the tournament (Marquette and Notre Dame, to name 2).  In some ways, they resemble the Vols team the Hoyas faced last season. No Chris Lofton or Tyler Smith anymore, the latter having been kicked off the team after the aforementioned arrests, but Wayne Chism and Scotty Hopson are still making things difficult on opposing defenses.  The Vols have down-shifted from last year’s frenetic pace to a more deliberate, defense-oriented style that scarcely appears to be the same team. If it wasn’t for Bruce Pearl’s ridiculous orange blazers (…or worse), you might not even recognize the team.

But not everyone is so keen on Tennessee in Thursday’s first-round game.  After the Kentucky debacle, the pundits are herding toward…

San Diego State beat New Mexico and UNLV, both tournament teams, on its way to winning the Mountain West conference tournament.  The Aztecs sport one of the greatest nicknames in college sports.  Basketball-wise, they assault the offensive rebounds (8th nationally), and convert those second-chance opportunities into a bunch of easy baskets (12th-highest two-point percentage nationally).  They also force a bunch of turnovers.  Other than that, the Aztecs have some real holes, including three-point shooting, free-throw shooting, protecting the ball, and defending the three.  Like Tennessee, San Diego State is a balanced squad, featuring four players who average in double figures and seven that average at least six per game.

Prediction? No idea.  Everyone seems to think the Aztecs will pull the upset, but Tennessee is clearly a talented squad that has beaten top-flight competition.  Vegas has Vols -3, and ESPN’s fancy simulator gives them only a 51% chance of prevailing.  Still, big-conference snobbery wins out: Tennessee 60, San Diego State 58.