Big East Round of 16
Another day of rest for the Hoyas today, but they’ll have one eye on the TV as South Florida plays DePaul at noon EST, with the winner facing the Hoyas tomorrow at noon. The Bulls beat the Blue Demons in Chicago in their only match-up this year, and ESPN’s fancy simulator gives USF roughly a 2-to-1 odds of winning today’s game, while basketball prospectus’s odds are closer to 4-to-1. The other games today (St. John’s-Connecticut, Providence-Seton Hall, Rutgers-Cincinnati) figure to compare favorably to paint drying, but not much else. Best to get mentally prepared for a revenge game tomorrow against the Bulls. Update: South Florida is winning 30-15 at the half. 15 points in a half? Nice work Demons.
Tourney odds
The guys at basketball prospectus have put some odds on the various Big Easters’ chances of winning each round. Based on all sorts of mathiness, the Hoyas, have an 80.9 percent chance of beating today’s winner. Then, the odds drop precipitously–they only have a 27.9% chance of also beating Syracuse (meaning roughly 2-to-1 odds, given the chance that they’ll lose tomorrow), a 14.1% chance of making the final (making them a slight favorite in the hypothetical semifinal game against Villanova or a team to be named later), and a 6.8% chance of winning the those thing.
Seeding
Joe Lunardi’s seeding continues to confound. The Hoyas were a 5 seed, no. 20 on the S curve, then trounced Cincinnati, making them a 6 seed, no. 23 on the curve, then did nothing, and rose to a 5 seed, no. 21. Apparently this counterintuitive movement has something to do with other teams’ successes and failures. One such team is Gonzaga, which got blown out last night and then fell to a 7 seed, and the other is beyond me. Anyway, a useful reminder (just like Syracuse’s and Marquette’s losses last weekend were) that the best the Hoyas can do is win their own game(s).
