Georgetown tries to snap its first two-game losing skid of the season Tuesday when it heads to Louisville to face the Cardinals at 7 pm EST. You can watch on ESPN2 or listen on ESPN 980.
Louisville has shaken off some off- and early-season troubles to emerge as a likely tournament team. Before the new year, the Cardinals dropped contests against UNLV (respectable), Charlotte (eh), and Western Carolina (ouch). The Cardinals weathered a similarly bumpy early conference stretch, before hitting their stride lately, rattling off victories at Syracuse and DePaul sandwiched around an overtime home W over Notre Dame. The Cardinals now stand at 9-5 in conference, one game ahead of our beloved Hoyas.
Some quick thoughts on this year’s Louisville squad:
- Star–Samardo Samuels. The sophomore forward came in with high expectations and, after an up-and-down freshman campaign, is fulfilling those hopes. At 6’9″, 260 lbs., he is a beast down low, where he averages 16.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per.
- Keep an eye on–Edgar Sosa. Eleventeenth-year point guards seems to be the trend this year in the Big East (Reynolds, Deonta Vaughn, Tory Jackson), and Sosa is the latest example. The Cardinal offense largely runs through Sosa, who is quick and distributes the ball well (team-high 4.3 apg).
- Supporting cast–Jerry Smith, Preston Knowles, and Jared Swopshire. Smith, a senior guard, has been a mainstay in the Louisville line-up for years, but seems to have lost any shooting touch this year (39% FG), and has tailed off in recent games. Knowles, a junior guard, also chips in about 8 ppg, but has likewise been suffering from an errant stroke (also 39% FG). Swopshire provides rebounding help (6.0 rpg) along with, again, about 8 points per. To win, Louisville needs two of these three to step up.
- Strength–As with all Louisville teams, this year’s squad forces turnovers at a very high rate–expect plenty of pressing–and converts efficiently on offense.
- Weakness–In going after so many turnovers, the Cardinals give up easy shots and lots of offensive rebounds.
- X factor–Foul trouble. Georgetown has been crippled when Greg Monroe gets early fouls, and Louisville leans heavily on Samuels, who patrols down low as well. Both players average around 2.5 fouls per contest. Foul trouble for either early Tuesday night could doom his team’s chances.
Georgetown comes into this game, as many others this season, at a cross-roads. Once third in the conference, the Hoyas have now sunk to seventh. Comparisons to the 2007 Final Four squad are fewer by the day; since the high-water mark of January 23, when the Hoyas were 6-2 in conference, they have gone 2-4 against Big East foes. Still, last week’s loss to Syracuse proved that this team has too much heart to be considered on par with the 2008 train wreck, either. The remaining four games–at Louisville, home for Notre Dame, at West Virginia, home for Cincinnati–providing difficult contests in which the Hoyas need to find their footing.
The Louisville game has often been a bellwether for the Hoyas’ fortunes. In 2007, the Hoyas walked into Freedom Hall and came out with a relatively easy 73-65 victory while gaining control over the Big East; Georgetown went on to win the Big East and advance to the Final Four. In 2008, Georgetown was overrun in the second half at Louisville in a game in which Rick Pitino looked like a cross between Satan and Ricardo Montalban, then eeked out a narrow victory at home; that talented but inconsistent Georgetown team lost in the Big East final and flamed out in the second round of the NCAA. Last year, the Cardinals added to the Hoyas’ losing streak, handing out a 76-58 beat down in the Phone Booth; the Hoyas bowed out early from both the Big East and the NIT. This year?
Prediction–Georgetown 70, Louisville 65.
