Georgetown returns to action Thursday against Syracuse in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament. The Hoyas seek revenge for two losses, both mostly embarrassing and one partly heart-wrenching. Tip is at 12 pm EST; you can watch on ESPN.
At this point, the Orange are a known, feared, and hated entity. If you take out the Hoyas’ 14-0 run to start the first game and their 25-7 run in the second game, the Orange have outscored the Hoyas by about eleventy billion in two games this year. Of course, if my dog purred it’d be a cat; maybe inspired D followed by several-minute brain farts are just Syracuse’s m.o.
So what has plagued the Hoyas against the Orange?
- Finding open shots. Back cuts and dribble-drive distraction don’t do much against the Orange’s 2-3 zone; ball movement and moving to seams does. Easier said than done, especially since the Orange’s collective wing-span, unofficially the longest since the 2003 Carmelo-Warrick championship run, makes finding clean looks even harder. Georgetown’s inability to find open shots is reflected in their two-game field-goal percentages: 42.9% and 38.5%, a steep decline from their 49.8% season average. Solution. The Hoyas have found some success working the ball into Greg Monroe (surprise, surprise) and others who flash to the free-throw line then distribute to open wings or other gaps in the zone. Also, while the Hoyas aren’t a running team and the Orange get back on defense, every fast-break basket helps.
- Scoring by the supporting cast. Julian Vaughn, Henry Sims, Hollis Thompson, Jerrelle Benimon and Vee Sanford have averaged 2.5 points per game total in the two Syracuse contests. They collectively average closer to double digits in Big East play normally. Had they chipped in at that rate against the Orange, the Hoyas might have split the two games. Solution. Thompson is the most likely candidate from this bunch to step up. Vaughn has been had some trouble maneuvering within the Orange zone, while any scoring from Benimon, Sanford, and Sims will be a happy surprise.
- Free throws. The Orange have shot 10+ more free-throws per game more than the Hoyas, and the Hoyas have been strangely below par from the line. Solution. The missed free throws are probably just a statistical aberration. Andy Rautins in particular has earned his keep from the stripe, averaging over 10 free throws attempted per contest, and the Orange wings in general have gotten to the line way too often. Perhaps flashing the occasional zone will cut down on the Hoyas’ hacking.
Now, a few things they’ve done well:
- Rebounding. The Orange are a big team, but they play zone, which generally provides better opportunities for offensive rebounds. The Hoyas, not a great rebounding team by any stretch, are +7 on the offensive glass over two games (and -6 overall, primarily due to a lot more misses by the Hoyas than the Orange).
- Forcing turnovers. Georgetown does not generally force a lot of turnovers, but they’ve forced Syracuse into an average of 16.5 per in the two games thus far. The Hoyas will need as many extra possessions as they can get tomorrow.
Georgetown has largely recovered from a late-season slide, winning its last two in impressive fashion and cementing a place in the NCAA tournament. Whichplace, though, is yet to be determined. Recent projections have the Hoyas as a 5 seed, but that probably could still go either way, depending on Thursday’s result (as well as the results of about 20 other games, and whether the butterfly half way around the world flaps its wings). More than seeding, though, Thursday’s game is about pride.
Prediction–Georgetown 70, Syracuse 67.
