by | January 27, 2012

Game Preview: #9/#10 Georgetown at Pittsburgh

Georgetown will try to win its fourth straight Saturday when it hits the road to face a struggling but dangerous Pittsburgh squad. Here’s what you need to get yourself ready.

When & Where. Saturday, Jan. 28, 4 p.m. EST, Petersen Events Center.

TV/Internet/Radio. ESPN/ESPN3/SportsTalk570.

It’s Been So Long Since Last We Met. Pitt has been the model of excellence over the past decade. Since 2003, the Panthers have averaged27 wins per season, have lost 10 games just once, and have compiled an astounding 101-41 record in the Big East, never failing to win more than 2/3 of their games overall or more than 1/2 of their Big East contests. That astoundingly consistent record made this year’s early-season collapse all the more surprising. Sure, Pitt lost a trio of seniors from last year’s team, including top playmaker Brad Wannamaker, rim defender Gary McGhee, and glue guy Gilbert Brown. But they returned a bevy of talent and had even more coming in. An early season home loss to Long Beach State was disconcerting, but the Panthers still stood at 11-1 heading into their Dec. 23 Christmas tune-up against Danny Hurley’s Wagner squad. But then the Seahawks improbably pulled off the upset. Big East play, and more losses, followed. The defense–for so long the Panthers’ calling card, emblematic as it was of coach Jamie Dixon’s unrivaled intensity–was suddenly porous, compounded by a key injury (more on that below) and the transfer, after barely one semester, of freshman phenom Khem Birch. The nadir came with a 23-point home beat-down by Rutgers, or maybe it was an earlier loss at DePaul. That defeat concluded with the Demon faithful rushing the floor, a show of exuberance that was all the more painful because it bore no relation to the Panthers’ record this season. By the time this Wednesday rolled around, Pitt had lost eight straight, including four at the once-inhospitable Petersen Events Center. Finally, this week, the bleeding stopped, or at least paused, when the Panthers finally got off the schneid by dispatching Providence at home. In other words, Pitt is now 1-7 in conference but perhaps finding its winning ways just in time to welcome your Hoyas into town.

Panthers to Know. The Pitt perimeter resembles those of their previous top-flight squads. Big East preseason Player of the Year Ashton Gibbs (16.7 ppg, 3.1 apg, 35.2 3FG%) anchors the Panther back-court and, despite shooting struggles this season, remains a threat to go for 20-plus. Gibbs’ load has been made a bit easier by the return of junior point guard Tray Woodall (11.6 ppg, 7.1 apg, 44.4 3FG%), an all-court menace who missed several games with a sore groin, from which he’s still feeling the effects. Still, Woodall seems to be rounding into form, as he went off for 17 points, including 4 three-pointers, and 9 assists against the Friars. Senior forward Nasir Robinson (12.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg) leads the team in rebounding despite standing just 6’5″, while sophomore guard Lamar Patterson (9.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 40 3FG%) provides some outside shooting while also out-rebounding his 6’5″ frame.

When Pittsburgh Has the Ball.

Panthers’ Strength. Offensive rebounding. Pitt always is tough on the boards, but this year is especially remarkable. The Panthers’ starting line-up goes, shortest to tallest, 5’11″, 6’2″, 6’5″, 6’5″, 6’9″, the last being sophomore Talib Zanna (6.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg). And yet the Panthers are the best offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing more than 45 percent of their own misses. That gaudy number hardly has been affected by conference play, as the Panthers have continued to lead the Big East in generating second chances despite their losing streak. As is often the case with rebounding, Pitt’s success is a team effort, with Robinson (63 O. Reb.) leading the charge and Zanna (56), Patterson (40), and junior forward Dante Taylor (6.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 56 O. Reb.) bringing reinforcements.

Hoyas’ Strength. Use length to force bad shots. Neither team’s strength has changed from the Rutgers game. Like Rutgers, Pitt is a tenacious but somewhat undersized team that struggles to get clean looks. Woodall’s returns has made good shots easier to come by, but a Hoya zone featuring the freshmen still should frustrate the Panthers. Pitt has been particularly susceptible to blocked shots this year, an area in which the Hoyas, led by Henry Sims (1.6 blk pg), excel.

Looming Question. Gibbs? Woodall’s return to form should help Gibbs, who intermittently was tasked with running the point during the former’s convalescence. Having to be more distributor than scorer, and not benefiting from easy looks set up by his teammate, Gibbs struggled to score. As a consequence, while his scoring average remains the same as last year, he has had to shoot more to get there: while last year he shot 47 percent from the field and a scorching 49 percent from three, this year he’s shot just 39 percent from the field and 35 percent from three. But Wednesday’s game against Providence may have been the turning point. In addition to Woodall’s excellent performance, Gibbs went for 22 points on the strength of five three-pointers. Whether Jason Clark or, in reserve, Greg Whittington is assigned to guard him, keeping Gibbs in check will be essential Saturday.

When Georgetown Has the Ball.

Hoyas’ Strength. Establish the (high and low) posts. One of the confusing aspects of Pitt’s struggles this year has been the Panthers’ defensive ineptitude. Previously a stout defensive team, Pitt has plummeted this year, rarely forcing turnovers and yielding plenty of open shots. In particular, the Panthers have given up more than 50 percent of opponents’ shots from two-point range, and have blocked less than 6 percent of opposing shots, both numbers that reflect the absence of a true interior defensive presence. Georgetown would do well to establish Sims, Nate Lubick, and Otto Porter inside on Saturday, and particularly to set up Sims in the high post, where he can attack the basket or feed a cutting teammate.

Panthers’ Strength. Defensive rebounding. As they do on offense, the Panthers clean the defensive boards effectively, yielding less than 35 percent of opposing misses as second chances. A Georgetown team that of late has generated plenty of extra possessions on the offensive glass will need to be more efficient against Pitt.

Looming Question. Free-throw shooting? Georgetown has been parading to the free throw line during conference play, leading the conference in free throw attempts as a percentage of shots overall. While getting the line has been easy, converting those opportunities hasn’t been, as the Hoyas have made just 65 percent of their free throws, the third-worst mark in the conference. Shaking off the slump may prove decisive tomorrow.

Prediction. It’s often said of rivalry games that, in predicting the outcome, the spectator should throw the teams’ records out the window. While the Panthers aren’t the Hoyas’ most natural rival, Georgetown should have its blood up a bit after last year’s embarrassing 72-57 stomping in Verizon. In any case, the proposition holds true: Pitt is better coached, more talented, and more dangerous, particularly at home, than its modest record suggests. Still, the Hoyas have proven themselves able road warriors this year, going 4-1 on the road, including wins over Louisville and Alabama. A bit of hand-to-hand combat in a hostile venue will be nothing new. Expect a tight, slow-paced affair that comes down the final minute. Georgetown 65, Pittsburgh 60.

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by | January 26, 2012

Checking in on Big East Predictions

At nearly half way through the conference slate, we’re far enough along for my Big East predictions to have gone predictably, horribly wrong.  Here are one man’s updated rankings, along with some sure-to-be-wrong-again prognostications.

1. Syracuse. Original prediction: #1 in Big East, 15-3 (28-3 overall). Currently: 8-1 (21-1 overall), #3 AP, #4 ESPN, #6 Pomeroy.
 The Orange’s loss to Notre Dame exposed the formula for beating them: make Syracuse play half-court offense. The Orange shot just 34 percent for the game while getting few breakout opportunities. Easier said than done. Center Fab Melo’s ongoing academic issues offer opponents some home, but that didn’t stop the Orange from beating Cincinnati on the road Monday. Revised Prediction: unchanged.

2. Marquette. Original prediction: #4 in conference, 13-5 (25-6 overall). Currently: 6-2 (17-4 overall), #17 AP, #18 ESPN, #20 Pomeroy. The Golden Eagles got off to a 1-2 conference start thanks to a late collapse against Georgetown and an eminently defensible seven-point loss at Syracuse. But they’ve won five straight, even if some haven’t been exactly smooth. They enter Thursday tied with your Georgetown Hoyas for second in the conference. Revised Prediction: record unchanged, just two spots higher in the standings.

3. Cincinnati. Original Prediction: #8 in conference, 10-8 (20-11 overall). Currently: 5-3 (15-6 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #46 Pomeroy. The Bearcats and the next two teams are virtually inseparable. After an embarrassing home loss to St. John’s, the Bearcats dropped an overtime thriller at West Virginia, and a narrow home decision to Syracuse. But they will be favorites in all but two or three games the rest of the way. Having seemingly rectified motivational issues, Cincinnati seems poised to roll through the back half of the schedule. Revised Prediction: 12-6 (22-9 overall).

4. Georgetown. Original Prediction: #6 in conference, 12-6 (22-7 overall). Currently: 6-2, #9 AP, #10 ESPN, #15 Pomeroy. The Hoyas’ top-10 ranking and tie for second in the conference both feel more like received by default than earned. But in a mediocre year in the Big East, surviving may be enough. If the Cincinnati collapse was penance for the Marquette comeback, the Hoyas probably owe someone for Rutgers. Revised Prediction: record unchanged, two spots higher in the standings.

5. West Virginia. Original Prediction: #5 in conference, 12-6 (21-10 overall). Currently: 5-3 (15-6 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #32 Pomeroy. Until last night, the Mountaineers probably would have been third. But a one-sided loss at St. John’s, even if it’s just an aberration, cost them a game in the standings, which could make all the difference between No. 3 and No. 5. Although I have Huggins’ boys slated for a similar finish to the Bearcats and Hoyas, and they have tie breakers over both, this reflects the uncertainty of my prediction. Oh, and Kevin Jones is an absolute stud. Revised Prediction: unchanged.

6. Louisville. Original Prediction: #3 in conference, 13-5 (25-6 overall). Currently: 4-4 (16-5 overall), NR AP, #25 ESPN, #39 Pomeroy.  All right, so the 31-point loss at Providence was bad, really bad. And their four wins have been against teams with a combined conference mark of 9-25. But Louisville always closes strong: in the past five seasons, they’ve won at least five of their last seven games every season, winning six twice and all seven once. That proposition will be tested by this year’s stretch run, which includes Syracuse twice, Connecticut, Cincinnati, and West Virginia. But the Cardinals are still good for 11 conference wins, which is better than the three teams directly above them in the standings. Revised Prediction: 11-7 (23-8 overall).

7. Connecticut. Original Prediction: #2 in conference, 13-5 (24-6 overall). Currently: 4-3 in conference (14-5 overall), #24 AP, #19 ESPN, #37 Pomeroy. All this talent has to win at some point, right? The Huskies have lost four of six, all to unranked squads. But better to crater in January than in March, as there’s still plenty of time for a turnaround. They still have Syracuse twice, Georgetown, Marquette, and Louisville, but should be able to scrape together enough wins to make the tournament. Revised Prediction: 10-8 (21-9 overall).

8. Notre Dame. Original Prediction: #11 in conference, 8-10 (16-15 overall). Currently: 5-3 (13-8 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #64 Pomeroy. In 2009-10, the Irish weathered the loss of several players from the year before, and a midseason injury to star Luke Harangody, finishing 10-8 in conference and making the NCAA tournament. This year, the Irish lost three starters to graduation or early departure, then Tim Abromaitis to season-ending injury. Somehow–probably, as every member of the national media will tell you, it’s coach Mike Brey–Notre Dame is 5-3 and has a very outside chance at a ticket to the dance. They probably won’t make it that far, but they’re annoyingly overachieving again anyway. Expect every Irish broadcast this year to include the words “efficient” and “gritty.” Revised Prediction: 10-8 (18-13 overall).

9. Seton Hall. Original Prediction: #9 in conference, 9-9 (20-10 overall). Currently: 4-4 (15-5 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #49 Pomeroy. After high-profile home wins over West Virgina and Connecticut, it’s a bit surprising to see the Pirates sitting at just .500 in league play, thanks three straight losses. With Louisville, Marquette, and Connecticut all lined up before a rivalry game with Rutgers, things won’t get much easier. Revised Prediction: unchanged.

10. South Florida. Original Prediction: #15 in conference, 2-16 (9-22 overall). Currently: 5-3 (12-9 overall), NR AP & ESPN, #95 Pomeroy. Against all odds, the Bulls haven’t quit on Stan Heath yet. Perhaps I should abandon my skepticism, given that they’ve more than doubled the number of wins I predicted. But a brutal Syracuse-Cincinnati-Louisville-West Virginia closing stretch will be too much. Revised Prediction: 8-10 (15-16 overall).

11. Rutgers. Original Prediction: #13 in conference, 5-13 (12-19 overall). Currently: 3-5 (11-10 overall), NR, #104 Pomeroy. The Scarlet Knights beat Connecticut and Notre Dame, put a scare into Georgetown, and lost to DePaul. Such is the up-and-down life of a young squad. Revised Prediction: 7-11 (14-17 overall).

12. Villanova. Original Prediction: #10 in conference, 9-9 (16-14 overall). Currently: 3-6 (10-11 overall), NR, #75 Pomeroy. The Wildcats probably could be a spot or even two higher, but they’ve only played well enough to stay out of the cellar so far. A schedule that includes home-and-homes with Cincinnati and Marquette doesn’t help much. Revised Prediction: 7-11 (14-16 overall).

13. Pittsburgh. Original Prediction: #7, 11-7 (22-9 overall). Currently: 1-7 (12-9 overall), NR, #94 Pomeroy. The rest of the standings feel like a terrible game of rock-paper-scissors. The Panthers get the top notch: (1) to avoid a jinx in advance of Saturday’s game; and (2) out of deference to experience and Jamie Dixon. They finally banished the goose egg with a win over Providence, but still have to play the Hoyas, West Virginia twice, Louisville, and Connecticut. Revised Prediction: 5-13.

14. St. John’s. Original Prediction: #14, 5-13 (11-20 overall). Currently: 3-6 (9-11 overall), NR, #153 Pomeroy. Wins over West Virginia (convincingly) and Cincinnati look nice; five of your six conference defeats being by double digits doesn’t. The next few weeks will be trying, as the Red Storm face a trio of conference leaders (Syracuse, Cincinnati, Georgetown), sandwiched by two tricky road games (at Seton Hall and DePaul), further sandwiched by two non-conference games (Duke and UCLA). As much as Hoya fans might like to see Duke each year, at least we don’t have a schedule that looks like that. Revised Prediction: unchanged.

15. DePaul. Original Prediction: #16, 2-16 (11-19 overall). Currently: 2-6 (11-9 overall), NR, #162 Pomeroy. DePaul still isn’t anything great, or even good, but they’re far better than in miserable years past. Revised Prediction: 4-14 (13-17 overall).

16. Providence. Original Prediction: #12, 6-12 (17-14 overall). Currently: 1-7 (12-9 overall). Neil Young once sang, “I can’t go wrong til I get right.” I have no idea what that means, but I suspect Friars’ coach Ed Cooley might. Providence’s trip to DePaul may decide who gets to occupy the conference basement. Hopefully the Friars will be looking ahead to that showdown when the Hoyas visit Providence, a game of which I remain afraid. Revised Prediction: 4-14 (15-16 overall).

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by | January 25, 2012

A March to Madness

When it comes to getting into the NCAA Tournament field of 64 65 68 teams as an at-large bid from a big conference, conventional wisdom suggests that you have to get to 20 wins. Georgetown’s win over Rutgers was its 16th of the season, though only its 15th against D-1 competition, which is what counts for tournament purposes. At least 11 games remain, and perhaps more if the Hoyas advance in the Big East Tournament. So simply playing .500 the rest of the way ought to get the Hoyas into the tournament. But based on the encouraging results to date, many Hoya faithful are expecting bigger and better things than mere entrance to the dance. And prominent bracketologists currently have Georgetown projected as a 3 seed.

So will the Hoyas get in, and with what seed? Here’s a soon-to-be-wrong projection of the remaining games, the Hoyas’ likelihood of winning and what it will take to get various seeds come tournament time.

Tier 1: Heavy Favorites.  There are four remaining games, all at the Phone Booth, that stats guru Ken Pomeroy gives the Hoyas an 85 percent or better chance of winning: South Florida, St. John’s, Villanova, and Notre Dame. None of these games are shoo-ins: Notre Dame just beat previously undefeated and #1 Syracuse; Villanova is underperforming but immensely talented; South Florida has been a traditional cellar dweller but is off to a 5-2 conference start this year; and St. John’s for all its flaws, has a number of promising young players. Still, the Hoya faithful should expect at least a 3-1 finish to this stretch, if not a sweep. Prediction: 3-1.

Tier 2: Favorites. Georgetown also will be favored, though not quite so heavily, in its remaining home game against Connecticut, and in roadies at Providence and Pittsburgh. UConn, for all its recent struggles, is the defending national champion, a top-20 squad, and just a loss behind the Hoyas in the standings. Providence and Pittsburgh are near the bottom of the conference standings, but each is more than capable of pulling of a home upset. While Georgetown could win all of these games, 2 out of 3 wouldn’t be bad. Prediction: 2-1.

Tier 3: Underdogs. Finally, the Hoyas will be underdogs for their trips to Syracuse, Seton Hall, and Marquette. Syracuse has lost just once all year, remaining in the top 5 even after the loss to Notre Dame knocked the Orange from number 1. Marquette has bounced back after losses to Georgetown and Syracuse, and Seton Hall is just a game behind the pack at 4-3. Even though it’s a rivalry game, beating the Orange looks to be a particular long shot; games against the Pirates and Eagles figure to be a bit closer. Going 0 for 3 isn’t out of the question, but let’s figure the Hoyas pull off one big road win. Prediction: 1-2.

Seeds. So what seed could the Hoyas get in the dance? Well, it depends on how they finish. Major conference teams over the past three years have averaged the following regular winning percentages per seed: 6 seeds win an average of 70.8 percent of their regular season games; 5 seeds, 72.2 percent; 4 seeds, 76.6; 3 seeds, 76.7; and 2 seeds, 80.4.

Any fewer than 5 wins will make it difficult for Georgetown to get into the tournament. If the Hoyas finish 5-5, they’d finish at 20-8. Depending on the Hoyas’ performance in the conference tournament, that record should earn them at least a 7 seed, possibly a 6.

A 6-4 finish, as projected above, would leave the Hoyas 12-6 in conference, 21-7 overall, on the edge of a top-4 Big East seed and double-bye that comes with it. Depending on which teams Georgetown beats, and how it does in the Big East Tournament, the Hoyas might grab a 5 or a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

A 7-3 finish (by sweeping the first tiers, or nearly so and pulling out one roadie) would leave the Hoyas 13-5 in conference, 22-6 overall, and in serious consideration for a 3 seed. Anything better than that would result in mass delirium and outsized expectations.

S0, the prospects for an entry to the tourney look good. Once the Hoyas get to March, well….

We’ll update this page as Georgetown rolls along at our March to Madness page.

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by | January 23, 2012

Monday Bullets

Some stuff to keep you entertained in a week-long layoff until Saturday’s game at Pitt.

Polls. A decent road win and a shaky escape at home aren’t losses, which is more than several teams previously ranked ahead of Georgetown can say. Thanks to other squads’ losses, the Hoyas, previously ranked #10 in the AP and #12 in the coaches’ poll, ascend to #9 in the AP and #10 in the coaches’ poll.

Anti-New Jersey Conspiracy. Much was made in the wake of Saturday’s win over Rutgers that the Scarlet Knights were whistled for 29 fouls, while the Hoyas got tagged for just 14. The foul discrepancy became a particular issue because Georgetown prevailed by just two, and the Scarlet Knights were called for a pair of critical fouls in the waning minutes: an offensive foul by Eli Carter, who pushed off of Jason Clark to get free well beyond the three-point arc; and a holding foul on Mike Poole in the lane with eight seconds remaining, which sent Otto Porter to the line for the game-clinching points.

Admittedly, there were a ton of fouls called on Saturday. But Hoya fans need not worry that they unjustly stole one.

At this point, Rutgers complaining about those fouls seems a bit disingenuous. The Scarlet Knights foul at the highest rate in the Big East (and, save for a woeful Texas Tech squad, the highest rate of any major conference team). They have been whistled for 15, 11, and 8 more fouls than their opponents in previous games this year. Running the numbers differently, the Knights have been whistled for 20 or more fouls in the majority of their games thus far, and average being charged with more than 24 fouls per game. (By contrast, the Hoyas have hit the 20-foul mark just 4 times in 19 games, and eclipsed that number just once, not coincidentally in a 12-point loss to West Virginia; Georgetown averages around 17.5 fouls per game.) Coach Mike Rice, who repeatedly questioned the officiating after the game, can scarcely be surprised by Saturday’s result: it’s been happening all year.

In addition, gripes about foul calls don’t pass the eye test. It is evident to anyone who watched Saturday’s game (and, I presume based on the numbers, other Rutgers games this year) that the Scarlet Knights are a very tough defensive team, at least in part because they’re so physical. Were they less physical, they almost surely would be less effective defenders. Unfortunately, they can’t have the benefit of physical defensive play–opponents’ missed shots and turnovers–without the inherent risk that physical play will frequently cross the line. If that were the case, I’d take all of Georgetown’s sweet backdoor cuts without the turnovers resulting from forced passes into traffic, please. Does Rice eat cheesesteaks at every meal then complain when he packs on the pounds?

And finally, let’s address the last two fouls. Those particular fouls–with Carter fully extending his arms to get separation from Clark, and Poole wrapping his arm around Porter’s waist–are exactly the type of noticeable violations that, whatever the actual harm inflicted, inevitably draw the attention of referees. Still, some accounts imply that those sort of calls should not be made late in a tie game. Hoya fans might be sympathetic to this line of thinking: recall that in the Alabama game, Clark got whistled for a questionable foul with 13 seconds remaining, leading to free throws that, but for Hollis Thompson’s heroics, might have given the Tide the game. Nevertheless, a swallow-your-whistle approach would lead to far worse problems. If the officials should not call fouls as the rules prescribe, what should be the standard? Only call flagrant fouls? Blow the whistle only for blood? Particularly in a game that was called closely from the get-go, calling fouls the same way throughout the game, including in the final minutes, was best.

Ultimately, Rutgers is a very good defensive team, and at this rate will be a contender in the conference next year or the one after that. As long as the Knights play defense like they did Saturday, they’re likely to frustrate opposing offenses. And who knows, as their stature in the conference rises, they may even get a few calls.

The Week Ahead. Without a mid-week game to cover, we’ll be taking a broader look at what lies ahead for the Hoyas, and at what’s going on in the rest of the Big East. Saturday’s win put Georgetown just five (not counting the win over D-II Chaminade) short of the magical 20-win marker that generally ensures entry into the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, the rest of the conference is messier than usual: Georgetown is one of five teams with two conference losses apiece, just a game behind Syracuse, the Big East leader. Check back throughout the week for updates, then Friday for a preview of the Pitt game.

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by | January 21, 2012

Escape: Georgetown 52, Rutgers 50

Georgetown overcame its worst shooting stretch of the season Saturday, combining defensive discipline and clutch free-throw shooting to eke out a 52-50 win over Rutgers. The Hoyas trailed for nearly the entire game, leading just three times for a combined one and a half minutes. But it was the last lead, brought about by six straight points by freshman Otto Porter, that gave Georgetown the decisive advantage.

It was tough sledding from the get-go for the Hoyas, who made just one field goal in the first six minutes, and just two in the first ten, all while falling behind 13-7. Rutgers brought defensive identity from the opening tip, denying Georgetown on the perimeter, and fishing out the ball from the post. The Hoyas, unable to find the open looks to which they were accustomed, resorted to out-of-rhythm hoists that inevitably bricked. Things didn’t get much better as the half wore on, as Porter’s jumper with 9:39 remaining was the Hoyas’ third and last field goal of the half. Still, Georgetown stayed in it, effectively mixing zone and man defenses to stifle the Scarlet Knight offense.  The Hoyas erased a six-point Rutgers lead and even took the lead on two Nate Lubick free throws with 4:25 remaining. 

Foul shots were the theme of the afternoon, as the flip side of the Scarlet Knights’ defensive tenacity was their relentless fouling. The Hoyas were sent to the line for 18 first-half free throws and, in a welcome recovery from their recent woes, made 14. On the day, Georgetown shot 36 free-throws, making 25 (both second this season only to the Hoyas’ 29-of-42 performance against Howard). Unfortunately, Lubick’s makes were Georgetown’s last points of the half, and a two-point Hoya lead became a five-point disadvantage by the half.

While the Hoyas’ offensive struggles continued into the second half, Rutgers never pulled away, building a lead that never stretched past six. Georgetown, for all its shooting woes, actually played a pretty good game otherwise. A Hoya team that has struggled with turnovers recently committed 14 on Saturday–a number that, while not exactly stingy, was good enough against a sticky-fingered Rutgers defense. And Georgetown continued its recent dominance on the boards, nabbing four more offensive rebounds than Rutgers (even though the Scarlet Knights missed four more shots). Finally, the Hoyas played pretty good defense themselves, holding Rutgers under 38 percent from the field, and to a similarly low number from two. As has been the case several times this season, the Hoya freshmen receive much of the credit for the defensive performance, as Porter, Greg Whittington (7 points, 5 rebounds) and Jabril Trawick (2 points, 2 assists) each brought defensive grit, particularly in the second half.

Tough defense and a brief spout of offensive competence finally got the Hoyas back in the game, tying it at 38 midway through the second half. Ties followed at 40 and 42, followed–at last!–by a Hoya lead, 44-42. Opportunity no sooner appeared than it seemed to slip away, thanks to renewed offensive ineptitude. The Hoyas managed just a point for more than four minutes, while Rutgers rebuilt a five-point lead with barely two minutes to play.

But in a game of shifting fortunes, the pendulum swung once more. The Hoyas locked down on defense and found yet another hero in a season full of them. After a Henry Sims free throw (team highs with 12 points, 10 rebounds, 3 blocks) made the deficit four, Georgetown got three straight stout defensive stops. Each time, the Hoyas gave the ball to Porter. Lubick stole the ball then arced a beautiful full-court pass to a streaking Porter, who laid the ball in to trim the difference to two. After Jason Clark (11 points, 5 rebounds) drew an offensive foul, Porter hit a mid-range jumper to even the game with barely a minute to play. A perfect defensive possession resulted in a desperation Rutgers three, giving the Hoyas the unlikely chance to win, which Porter converted from the line with eight seconds remaining.

This win, like the one over Providence on New Year’s Eve, is sort of a Rorschach test for the fan’s feelings about the Hoyas. The optimist will assert that the Hoyas, in seasons past a strong offensive team that struggled when their shots weren’t falling, have found new ways to win. To be sure, there’s support for this view. As mentioned above, the Hoyas put in a strong performance on defense and on the boards, weaknesses in seasons gone by. And Georgetown has now won three games in which it has failed to score sixty points (Providence and Alabama being the two others), a feat which it accomplished not at all last year and just once the season before.

Of course, there’s ample material for the pessimist as well. The offensive droughts were excruciating, an echo of struggles throughout this season. With Markel Starks (three points) struggling recently, it’s hard to shake the nagging feeling that the Hoyas are one scorer short. Saturday, that feeling was more than nagging, as the Hoyas shot just 3 of 24 in the first half and less than 30 percent for the game.

Whose view prevails remains to be seen. But Georgetown finished a three-game stretch against inferior but tricky teams: St. John’s with young offensive promise; DePaul with harried pressure; and Rutgers with sticky, grabbing defense. As they should have, the Hoyas won all three. Those wins look all the more essential when looking at the standings where, behind the hated (and, alas, undefeated) Orange, there’s a logjam of five teams with two losses apiece.

Now, Georgetown enjoys a week before traveling to Pittsburgh.  In the meantime, Hoya Saxa.

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by | January 20, 2012

Game Preview: Rutgers at #10/#12 Georgetown

Georgetown will try to win its third straight Saturday when it returns home to host a feisty Rutgers team. Here’s what you need to get yourself ready.

When & Where. Saturday, Jan. 21, 12 p.m. EST, Verizon Center.

TV/Internet/Radio. MASN/ESPN3/SportsTalk570.

It’s Been So Long Since Last We Met. In his second year at the helm, coach Mike Rice has one of the youngest teams in the country. Rice favors a deep rotation, trotting out 10 different players for at least 10 minutes per game. That group includes five freshmen, three sophomores, and two juniors, making Georgetown’s young lineup look grizzled by comparison. Aside from a couple of blips though (a loss to Princeton, barely edging Dartmouth), Rutgers has looked and played much better than last year, when a senior-heavy squad went just 5-13 in the Big East. Highlights among the Scarlet Knights’ 11-8, 3-3 tally so far include home wins over Florida and Connecticut and a dominating 23-point win at an admittedly slumping (free-falling?) Pittsburgh.

Scarlet Knights to Know. Rice’s rotations prevent any one player from dominating the headlines, but there’s definitely a youth movement afoot in New Jersey. Freshmen guards Eli Carter (13.7 ppg, 2.2 apg, 1.2 stl pg) and Jerome Seagears (7.7 ppg, 2.3 apg) lead the Scarlet Knight attack. Fellow freshman guard (and, along with Carter, St. Anthony’s (N.J.) alumnus) Myles Mack (10.2 ppg, 2.1 apg, 1.5 stl pg) comes off the bench but enjoys roughly equal playing time to his two classmates and packs a similar scoring punch. All three are capable if not exceptional long-distance shooters, and each excels at creating plays off the bounce. In addition to the influx of back-court talent, Rutgers returns two starters. Sophomore forward Gilvydas Biruta (9.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.1 stl pg) brings size and energy, while junior forward Dane Miller (7.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.5 stl pg, 1.9 blk pg). Overall, the Scarlet Knights have been transformed into an energetic, tough bunch, a reflection of Rice’s intensity.  

When Rutgers Has the Ball.

Scarlet Knights’ Strength. Offensive rebounding. That energy and toughness haven’t translated to great offensive production so far. Rutgers hasn’t scored 70 or more in Big East play yet, and sports middling shooting numbers. But the Scarlet Knights get after it on the offensive boards, grabbing more than 38 percent of their own misses, a top-25 mark nationally. While that number has dipped during conference play, the Knights will continue to attack the rim Saturday. Georgetown dominated the boards against both DePaul and St. John’s and will need to do so again against Rutgers.

Hoyas’ Strength. Use length to force bad shots. Georgetown has held five Big East opponents under 45 percent shooting, winning each of those contests, and failed to do so in two conference games, both losses. The Scarlet Knights aren’t great shooters. The Hoyas’ length should limit perimeter looks for Rutgers’ undersized back-court. They’ll still need to contain the Knights’ guards penetration, an issue that crept up against Cincinnati and West Virginia.

Looming Question. Press? Rutgers’ biggest offensive weakness is protecting the ball: the Knights give the ball away 15 times per game, and Carter, Mack, Biruta, and Miller each average at least two miscues apiece. While Georgetown’s defense hasn’t taken the ball away in conference play at the same rate it did earlier in the season, the Hoyas pressured and trapped their way to several easy transition baskets against DePaul. Extending the defense against Rutgers’s young back-court may produce a similar slew of open buckets.

When Georgetown Has the Ball.

Hoyas’ Strength. Establish Henry Sims. Big Hank will have a height advantage on whoever is guarding him, whether Rice throws Biruta, freshman Derrick Randall, or junior Austin Johnson, all 6’8″, at the big fella. And Rutgers as a whole is prone to foul trouble, rating last in the conference in the number of free throws it yields compared to shots overall. Those foul shots come more easily when the Hoyas use Sims, whether driving from the high post or getting position down low. Finally, the Hoyas are second in the conference in field goal percentage: the clean looks needed to make so many shots come a lot more easily when their leading assist man, Sims, is opening up opportunities for perimeter shooters.

Scarlet Knights’ Strength. Forcing turnovers. As against DePaul, Georgetown’s offensive weakness is the opponent’s strength. Rutgers’s scrappy defensive attack forces nine steals per game, with five different Scarlet Knights averaging better than a steal per game. The Hoyas, for their part, have been in the bottom quarter of the league in turnover rate during conference play. Sims and Jason Clark have given the ball away the most, due in part to their high usage rate. But better protecting the ball must be a point of emphasis for all of the Hoyas against the Knights’ sticky fingers. Hopefully Markel Starks, who missed the DePaul game with a stomach illness, will return to help with ball-handling.

Looming Question. Offensive rebounding? The Hoyas have emerged as an offensive rebounding force in the last two games, grabbing better than fifty percent of their own misses. Rutgers, like St. John’s and DePaul, struggles to keep its opponents off the offensive glass, ranking just 11th in the league and below 200th nationally in that category. In addition to Sims’s expected size advantage, Greg Whittington, Otto Porter, and Hollis Thompson all may be able to grab boards over their defenders’ heads.

Prediction. Rutgers has been fairly predictable over the past several years: tricky in New Jersey, tame elsewhere. Since 2000, Rutgers has lost all nine games against the Hoyas in D.C., but has battled them to a nearly even 4-5 draw in New Brunswick. This year, in addition to being downright dangerous at home, the Scarlet Knights have shown signs of life on the road, drubbing a(n admittedly reeling) Pitt team that enjoys a substantial home court advantage. Saturday, Georgetown will enjoy superior experience and size, and should use both to its advantage. But, as seen most clearly in DePaul’s eight-point possession Tuesday, turnovers can prove a killer if the Hoyas aren’t careful. Georgetown 68, Rutgers 58.

Ed. Note 1/20/2012: Sophomore center Moses Ayegba, who suffered a torn ACL over the summer, appears to be making some progress toward a return. The Post‘s Tarik El-Bashir tweeted Monday that Ayegba has been cleared for “controlled, non-contact drills” and was on the floor during practice before the Hoyas’ game against DePaul. Yesterday, Elliott Smith of CBSSports.com posted that Ayegba participated in “limited drills” but that JTIII stated that a decision concerning Ayegba’s return was “several weeks away.” Given the difference between drills and full game play, Ayegba’s previous inexperience, and Thompson’s projected time frame, Ayegba’s return, previously presumed to be next season, does not seem imminent. Any return likely would have implications for his ability to obtain a medical redshirt, and the additional year of eligibility, for this year’s injury.

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by | January 18, 2012

Boardwork: Georgetown 83, DePaul 75

On Sunday, Georgetown rode a dominant rebounding effort and a hot hand to a road conference victory. Tuesday, the formula was much the same, as the Hoyas relied on Jason Clark’s sharpshooting and team board work en route to a 83-75 win at DePaul.

Clark led all scorers, hitting 11 of 14 shots, 5 of 7 from three, en route to a career-high 31 points. The senior guard re-found his outside stroke, which had eluded him throughout a 4-for-22 three-point slump over the past six games. But he also played to his strengths, slashing to the hoop and pushing the ball in transition. Clark also affected the game in other ways, assuming primary ball-handling duties in the absence of point guard Markel Starks (who was sidelined with a stomach bug), swiping four steals, and grabbing five rebounds.

And Clark wasn’t alone on the glass, as six Hoyas grabbed at least four rebounds over an undersized Blue Demon squad. Leading the charge to the boards was Otto Porter, who grabbed a career-high 15 rebounds, his fifth double-digit rebound game in just eighteen career appearances. Porter continued to show a nose for the ball, also racking up two steals and two blocks even as he struggled through a rough shooting night.

The Hoyas particularly thrived on the offensive boards, where more Hoya misses found their way into Hoya hands (17) than into those of the Blue Demons (15). Senior post Henry Sims generated the most second chances, grabbing four offensive rebounds and seven misses over all while also scoring 13 16 points.

It wasn’t all good news for Georgetown, which struggled to cope with DePaul’s frenetic pace. The Blue Demons forced 18 Hoya turnovers, most in their full-court press. While Porter gave the ball away a team-high five times, the miscues were fairly evenly distributed. Some of the mistakes were to be expected: the Blue Demons thrive on taking the ball away in the full-court press. What’s more, the Hoyas were without Starks, frequently Georgetown’s lead guard, making the DePaul pressure all the more daunting. Even so, Georgetown’s tendency to fork the ball over was troubling, made all the more so by DePaul’s ability to capitalize on those mistakes. Those mistakes allowed DePaul runs that kept the Hoyas from pulling away in a contest they led nearly wire to wire.

DePaul also managed to stay close because Georgetown could not hit free throws. Clark missed five of his nine tries, while Hollis Thompson (14 points, 5 rebounds, 2 steals) bricked both of his. As a team, the Hoyas hit just 16 of their 28 free throws, continuing a five-game slump in which they have made just 61 percent of their free throws.

Even so, Georgetown put the game away. After DePaul rattled off eight straight points without the Hoyas advancing the ball past half-court, the lead stood at just 48-46, and the sparse Blue Demon crowd had come to its feet, cheering through the Hoya timeout. But a pair of offensive put-backs, one by Thompson and another by Greg Whittington (five rebounds, four points), sandwiched around a Clark fast-break lay-in, made the advantage eight. Georgetown was never really threatened again, stretching the lead to 14 before holding on for the win.

For those prone to complain about the state of Hoya hoops, games at DePaul are a sobering reminder of what could be. These contests are observed by a few thousand in a soulless facility, far closer to the airport than campus, where banners tout the achievements of minor league hockey and arena football squads. During a visiting team’s run, the loud clapping of a few opposing fans echoes, making the meager home crowd seem all the more so. On Tuesday, it was evident that the DePaul faithful, supporters of a team so long the laughingstock of the Big East, desperately want their team to matter again. For a while, the Blue Demons looked ready to satisfy that yearning, scoring in bunches and swarming with full-court pressure. But, whatever their errors throughout the game, the Hoyas got just enough offense from Clark and just enough work on the glass to keep DePaul at arm’s length.

The two-game, two-win road trip means the Hoyas held serve while five other Big East teams teams also have two conference losses. Now, the Hoyas return to their home court, where on Saturday they’ll face a young Rutgers squad that already has beaten a pair of top-10 teams at home while compiling a 3-3 conference mark. In the meantime, Hoya Saxa.

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by | January 17, 2012

Game Preview: #10/#12 Georgetown at DePaul

Georgetown tries to pick up its third road conference win this season when the Hoyas roll into Chicago for Tuesday’s match-up with DePaul. Here’s what you need to get yourself ready.

When & Where. Tuesday, Jan. 17, 7 p.m. EST, Allstate Arena, Rosemont, Ill.

TV/Internet/Radio. ESPN2/ESPN3/SportsTalk570.

It’s Been So Long Since Last We Met. Georgetown beat DePaul on New Year’s Day 2011; the Blue Demons went on to finish their first season under coach Oliver Purnell much as they had their last season under the old regime, basement dwellers in the Big East at 1-17. This year figured to be better, as the young players whom Purnell threw to the wolves last year came back with some seasoning. And, by DePaul’s modest standards, there has been improvement: the Demons beat two major conference non-Big East opponents (sure, they were fellow lightweights Arizona State and Texas Tech, but DePaul can’t really afford to quibble), then pulled off what  at the time looked like an upset over Pittsburgh (which now has lost six straight and counting). That has proved to be the Demons’ lone conference win so far, one outweighed by four losses, all by at least sixteen. Still, DePaul already has won 10 games, three more than last year, and can pull off the upset of the Hoyas aren’t careful.

Blue Demons to Know. DePaul is led by a pair of sophomores, returning Rookie of the Year forward Cleveland Melvin (18.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.2 blk pg) and guard Brandon Young (16.9 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.9 stl pg). Melvin, like Moe Harkless of St. John’s, is a lithe 6’8″ but can make plays in the lane and on the offensive glass, where he scoops nearly two of his teammates’ misses per game. Young, although he hoists nearly four and a half threes per game, does most of his damage inside the arc and in transition. Senior guard Jeremiah Kelly (9.6 ppg, 3.9 apg, 37.5 3FG%) shares ball-handling duties with Young and, along with a third sophomore, forward Moses Morgan (8.1 ppg, 35.2 3FG%), provides the Blue Demons with outside shooting.

When DePaul Has the Ball.

Blue Demons’ Strength. Protecting the ball. Don’t let Melvin’s and Young’s offensive numbers fool you: the Blue Demons struggle to score. Sure, DePaul scores 76 points a game, but they play at such a fast pace that those larger numbers are more the product of volume than efficiency. Taken on a per-possession basis, the Blue Demon’s numbers fall back down to Earth, and then some. DePaul is 13th in the conference in offensive efficiency, and has been dead last since conference play began. But the Blue Demons still protect the ball well: despite their frenetic pace, they commit just 14 turnovers per game, preserving plenty of extra possessions each game.

Hoyas’ Strength. Forcing bad shots. Georgetown locked down on defense against St. John’s, showing flashes of its non-conference form while forcing the Red Storm to miss nearly 70 percent of their shots. DePaul isn’t quite as bad as St. John’s from the field, but the Demons have ranked last in the Big East in two-point percentage since conference play began, and just thirteenth in shooting more generally. But Georgetown will need to be dialed in on defense. The Blue Demons try more than 22 three-pointers per game; although they make just one out of every three tries, one hot hand could cause a lot of discomfort for the Blue and Gray. The Hoyas’ length, particularly when freshmen Otto Porter and Greg Whittington are in the game, will be essential to denying open DePaul looks.

Looming Question. Will the zone work? Georgetown has employed a zone defense effectively throughout the season, particularly against St. John’s, which missed all of its three-pointers, thereby failing to draw out the Hoya defenders. The 2-3 look could slow down the Demons’ manic attack, but only if the Hoyas can keep an eye on Kelly and Morgan, who figure to put pressure on the zone by taking any open look from deep.

When Georgetown Has the Ball.

Hoyas’ Strength. Finding quality shots. DePaul will look to press Georgetown whenever possible, contesting the Hoyas full-court. But once the Hoyas get the ball over half court, the coast is clear. The Blue Demons give up a ton of transition points, making their two-point defense 305th in the country and last in the conference. They’ve also struggled to defend the three since Big East play  began, ranking last in that category as well.

Blue Demons’ Strength. Forcing turnovers. But getting the ball to an open shooter is no easy task, since the Blue Demons force turnovers on nearly a quarter of opponents’ possessions, the fifth-best mark in the conference. Rather than getting a hand in the face of each shooter, DePaul strives to run its opponent into the ground, harassing ball handlers and jumping passing lanes. For a Hoya squad that has given up steals on 15 percent of possessions in conference play, the worst figure in the Big East, protecting the ball will be a priority.

Looming Question. Offensive rebounding? Before Sunday, Georgetown had not been a particularly strong offensive rebounding unit, grabbing a so-so 35 percent of its own misses, while no Hoya grabbed more than two of his teammates’ misses per contest. But then the Hoyas exploited the Red Storm’s glaring weakness, grabbing 18 offensive rebounds and scoring 21 second-chance points. Like St. John’s, DePaul struggles to box out, allowing 39 percent of opponents’ misses as second (or third) chances. Keep an eye on Whittington and Porter on the weak-side boards.

Prediction. There’s a bit more danger in this year’s DePaul squad than in the past few pushovers. That’s not saying much, as the last three Demon outfits managed a combined two Big East wins. But Purnell’s charges are picking up his system a bit better this year. That speed, and the dual scoring threats Melvin and Young, ensure that opponents cannot simply pencil in a win over the Blue Demons this year. The ball-handling of Jason Clark and Markel Starks, and the entire team’s control of the game’s pace, will be essential to picking up yet another conference road win. Georgetown 75, DePaul 64.

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by | January 16, 2012

Closeout: Georgetown 69, St. John’s 49

Georgetown wrapped the game on a 21-4 run Sunday afternoon, putting away a tense game with stingy defense and selfless offense. The closing effort impressively punctuated an otherwise uneven game.

Georgetown started the game slowly, scoring just five points over the first eight minutes. The Hoyas settled for three-pointers, several from well beyond the stripe, as the Red Storm racked up transition baskets, building an eight-point lead. But just when pessimism was setting in, the Hoyas’ offense began to click. Jason Clark hit a three out of the timeout, then Henry Sims rattled off five straight points out of the post and short corner. The made baskets allowed to Georgetown to set up its zone, which proved tremendously effective against a St. John’s squad that made nothing all day from deep. The Red Storm went scoreless for more than six minutes, and managed just six more points before the half. For its point, Georgetown shot just 31 percent from the field for the half, and so couldn’t pull away. Still, ten offensive rebounds gave the Hoyas enough extra possessions to take a 25-19 lead into intermission.

In the second half, the Hoyas cracked the St. John’s zone. Georgetown moved the ball more crisply, finding plenty of open looks by weak-side ball reversals. Those clean shots went down, as the Hoyas shot 55 percent from the field after the break. Hollis Thompson led the charge, scoring all 20 of his points in the second half, almost entirely from beyond the arc, where Hollywood hit five treys, and on the break, where he hit a pair of layups.

In addition to improved shooting, Georgetown’s second half offensive surge was fueled by a continued assault on the offensive glass, where the Hoyas gathered eight second-half extra possessions other the top of the Red Storm’s over-matched zone. In all, more Hoya misses were grabbed by the Hoyas themselves (18) than by St. John’s (15). Greg Whittington (8 points, 8 rebounds) and Otto Porter (13 points, 10 rebounds) were particularly aggressive on the glass, gathering six and five offensive rebounds, respectively.

Still, St. John’s hung around, as a pair of Red Storm free throws made the deficit just three with six minutes and change remaining. But then everything the Hoyas did well to that point coalesced. The defensive pressure continued, good ball movement led to easy baskets for whoever was open (five Hoyas scored in the closing kick), and the offensive glass continued to provide easy second chances. At the same time, Georgetown’s main foil, St. John’s freshman stud Moe Harkless (21 points, 10 rebounds), fouled out, leaving the Red Storm without a go-to offensive option. In the end, Georgetown turned a tight game into a seeming blowout, leaving Madison Square Garden with a road win, all the more crucial in the Big East, in which seven of the sixteen teams finished the weekend with two conference losses.  The Hoyas will stay on the road, traveling to Chicago where on Tuesday they’ll face a DePaul squad on the rise. Hoya Saxa.

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by | January 13, 2012

Game Preview: Georgetown at St. John’s

Georgetown tries to put the brakes on a two-game skid Sunday when it faces a young version of old rival St. John’s at Madison Square Garden.  Here’s what you need to get yourself ready:

When & Where. Sunday, Jan. 15, 12 p.m. EST, Madison Square Garden.

TV/Internet/Radio. MASN/ESPN3/ESPN980.

It’s Been So Long Since Last We Met. The Hoyas and Red Storm split two decisions last year, with St. John’s nipping Georgetown by three in MSG and the Hoyas exacting 25-point revenge in Verizon a few weeks later. This year, the uniforms look the same, but the bodies filling them do not, particularly for the Redmen, who return just one scholarship player from last year’s squad. The incoming crop was supposed be talented and deep, but expectations have changed: three incoming freshmen failed to qualify (one has since qualified and joined the team), and one of two incoming junior college transfers already transferred back out. That left St. John’s with just seven scholarship players and the need to hold open tryouts. Add in coach Steve Lavin’s ongoing health problems, and it’s no surprise that St. John’s have had an up-and-down year, entering Sunday’s game 8-8. Wins over Providence and Cincinnati (which apparently fueled a more inspired Bearcat effort against the Hoyas) paper over losses to Detroit and Northeastern.

Red Storm to Know. With all the departures from last year’s NCAA Tournament team, plus this year’s turmoil, the Red Storm have just seven scholarship players. Up front, St. John’s leans heavily on juco transfer and First Team All-Name power forward God’s Gift Achiuwa, who muscles his way to 12.1 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. Freshman wings D’Angelo Harrison (15.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.6 stl pg) and Moe Harkless (15.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.6 stl pg, 1.8 blk pg) power the St. John’s perimeter attack, with Harkless in particular making a strong case for Big East Rookie of the Year. The Red Storm’s leading assist man is freshman guard Phil Greene (6.1 ppg, 2.4 apg), though that honor is tempered by the Red Storm’s poor shooting and passing.

When St. John’s Has the Ball.

Red Storm’s Strength. Getting to the line. The Red Storm’s offense is…how to put it…not good. St. John’s ranks last in the Big East in offensive efficiency, a number that’s improved only marginally since conference play began. They connect on just 25 percent of three-pointers, the fourth-worst mark in the nation. Things don’t improve inside the arc, where the Johnnies get nearly 13 percent of their shots blocked, the second-worst mark in the conference. The Red Storm also rank in the bottom half of the conference in two-point percentage, offensive rebounding, and turnover rate. So to recap, they don’t shoot very well, and don’t give themselves many extra chances to shoot by protecting the ball or grabbing their own misses. But they do get to the line fairly well, enough to shoot 25 free throws per game, and in conference play they’ve been shooting pretty well, making 74 percent of their tries. And you can’t block free throws.

Hoyas’ Strength. Forcing bad shots. Despite the Hoyas’ recently porous defense, they remain a solid squad overall, ranking 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency.  When locked in, Georgetown denies good looks better than most teams in the country. The Hoyas are especially adept at closing out at the three-point line, holding their opponents below 29 percent from three for the season, a figure that aligns nicely with the Red Storm’s woeful three-point percentage.

Looming Question. Perimeter Stopper?  While the Hoyas can prevent St. John’s guards from raining three balls, they also need to contain the dribble drive. The Hoyas looked defensively stout for much of the preseason, but recently have been shredded by opposing guards Darius Johnson-Odom (for 27 minutes, anyway), Truck Bryant, Sean Kilpatrick, and Dion Dixon. While St. John’s doesn’t have a ton of firepower offensively, Harkless and Harrison can both get to the rim. Georgetown might lock them down by showing more zone than it did against Cincinnati.

When Georgetown Has the Ball.

Hoyas’ Strength. Shooting. Lost in the furor (a healthy dose from this site) of the Cincinnati collapse was that the Hoyas actually shot pretty well, netting nearly 60 percent of their shots. Even with the eyesore shooting performance against Providence, Georgetown leads the Big East in effective field goal percentage during conference play. On the other side of the ball, the Red Storm have struggled, giving up 55 percent or better shooting in two of their five conference games, playing the third-worst shot prevention defense in conference play as a whole.

Red Storm’s Strength. Not fouling. Somehow St. John’s is nearly the best in the country at not sending its opponents to the free-throw line. Whether it faced a bunch of jump shooters in non-conference play, plays toreador defense, or has found some magic formula is unclear. But the Hoyas shouldn’t expect a bunch of free tosses Sunday.

Looming Question. Turnovers. The Red Storm aren’t Cincinnati or even West Virginia when it comes to forcing turnovers, but the Hoyas need to right the ship. Since conference play started, Georgetown ranks 13th in the Big East in turnover rate, and are committing miscues on more than 22 percent of their possessions. Many of these giveaways are of the routine or unforced variety, as players dribble into double coverage, lazily make skip passes across multiple defenders, or simply handle the ball timidly. The next two Hoya foes, DePaul and Rutgers, are on the rise and thrive in particular on making turnovers. Sunday is the last chance to correct some bad habits.

Looming Question #2. Offensive rebounding? St. John’s is an undersized squad that correspondingly struggles to rebound: the Red Storm yield nearly 37 percent of opponents’ misses as second (or third, or fourth) chances, a number that has risen against taller Big East opponents. The Hoyas, meanwhile, have struggled to clean the offensive glass in conference, but have the perfect opportunity Sunday. Henry Sims, Otto Porter and Nate Lubick all should get easy second chances against a smaller St. John’s defense. A second bounce-back game for Lubick, who had eight points and eight rebounds against Cincinnati, and a strong Sims performance, would be particularly welcome.

Prediction. Things have been worse. Last year, Georgetown opened conference play on a 1-4 skid that had everyone thinking the worst, then closed the season with an injured star and five straight losses. Unlike last year, the Hoyas have far exceeded expectations this season, riding youthful energy and encouraging development to a remarkable start. This week, when the Hoyas moved back into their dorms, offered them a few days to rest, practice, and re-focus after a harried six-day, three-game stretch. The Big East schedule never affords breaks, and the coming pair of games, in two time zones against two young, hungry squads over three days, will be a test. On Sunday, expect the Hoyas’ superior size, experience, and depth to be too much for the Red Storm.  Georgetown 64, St. John’s 55.

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